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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Balance of Trade fell to 0.5B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia Balance of Trade fell to 0.5B in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.86B from July's 1.35B reading. The reading missed the 2B consensus by 1.51B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.28B. The reading is in the 7th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.495
Actual
2
Consensus
1.351
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.4 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 2.89
Actual: 0.5
Error: +2.39
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Australia) was reported at 0.50 billion in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.00 billion by 1.51 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.35 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.91 billion, ranging from 0.50 billion to 5.69 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.45 billion, down from the prior three at 3.37 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.42 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.61 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 2.65 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P/ASX 200 (Bullish S&P). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.40 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - AU
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About Balance of Trade — Australia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.495 M, consensus 2 M. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.923 M. Before that (Jun 2026): 1.929 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |