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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Commodity Prices YoY climbed to 16.8% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Australia Commodity Prices YoY climbed to 16.8% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 1.7% from April's 15.1% reading. The reading matched the 17.4% consensus. Commodity Prices YoY has now risen for 6 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Commodity Prices YoY averaged 14.25%, vs 0.73% in the prior 3-month window. Commodity Prices YoY is now the highest in 37 months.
Latest Release
16.8
Actual
17.4
Consensus
15.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.77 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 21.4
Actual: 16.8
Error: +4.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | INDEX | Bullish S&P | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Commodity Prices YoY (Australia) was reported at 16.8% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 17.4% by 0.6%. The reading rose from the previous value of 15.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.54%, ranging from -9% to 16.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 11%, up from the prior three at -0.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.48%) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.81%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Commodity Prices YoY has averaged 1.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P/ASX 200 (Bullish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/NZD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 1, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Commodity Prices YoY - AU
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About Commodity Prices YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
Commodity Prices YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average prices of raw materials and goods over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the global economy and can help investors and businesses make informed decisions about their investments and pricing strategies. This indicator is widely used by analysts and economists to track inflation, supply and demand trends, and the performance of various industries.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 16.8 %, consensus 17.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 15.7 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 12.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/ASX 200 (Bullish S&P, r=0.53) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.