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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Commodity Prices YoY fell to 15.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia Commodity Prices YoY fell to 15.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.7% from August's 16.2% reading. The reading matched the 15.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 5.92%. Over the past 3 months, Commodity Prices YoY averaged 15.45%, vs 16.25% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
15.5
Actual
15
Consensus
16.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.44 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 15.38
Actual: 15.5
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Commodity Prices YoY (Australia) was reported at 15.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 16.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 7.52%, ranging from -3.8% to 16.8% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 15.47%, up from the prior three at 11%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.97%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.28%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Commodity Prices YoY has averaged 1.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P/ASX 200 (Bullish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.44%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Commodity Prices YoY - AU
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About Commodity Prices YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
Commodity Prices YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average prices of raw materials and goods over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health of the global economy and can help investors and businesses make informed decisions about their investments and pricing strategies. This indicator is widely used by analysts and economists to track inflation, supply and demand trends, and the performance of various industries.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 15.5 %, consensus 15 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 15.5 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 15.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/ASX 200 (Bullish S&P, r=0.49) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |