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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Consumer Inflation Expectation held to 4.9% in September 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased September 2026
Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation held to 4.9% in September 2026. The reading matched the 5.1% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 0.2%. Consumer Inflation Expectation is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
4.9
Actual
5.1
Consensus
4.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.55 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 5.35
Actual: 4.9
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Consumer Inflation Expectation (Australia) was reported at 4.9% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.1% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.97%, ranging from 4.5% to 5.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 5.1%, down from the prior three at 5.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.35%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.48%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.55%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Sep 18) and RBA Hunter Speech (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Consumer Inflation Expectation - AU
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About Consumer Inflation Expectation — Australia
DEFINITION
Consumer Inflation Expectation is a financial indicator that measures the anticipated rate of inflation among consumers. It reflects the level of confidence or concern that consumers have about the future purchasing power of their money. This indicator is important for businesses and policymakers as it can impact consumer spending and economic growth. A higher consumer inflation expectation may lead to increased prices and reduced consumer spending, while a lower expectation may result in lower prices and increased consumer spending.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.9 %, consensus 5.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.9 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 5.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | AU | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 01:00 | AU | Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |