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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Export Prices QoQ fell to 0.5% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2026
Australia Export Prices QoQ fell to 0.5% in Q1 2026, released April 2026, down 2.7% from December's 3.2% reading. The reading missed the 1.0% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -1.1%.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
1
Consensus
3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.53 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: -0.5
Actual: 3.2
Error: -3.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Export Prices QoQ (Australia) was reported at 0.5% in April 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.73%, down from the prior three at 0.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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Export Prices QoQ - AU
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About Export Prices QoQ — Australia
DEFINITION
Export Prices QoQ (Quarter-over-Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the prices of goods and services exported by a country over a period of three months. It provides valuable insights into the competitiveness of a country's exports and the impact of global economic conditions on its trade. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to assess the health of a country's economy and its international trade relationships. A positive QoQ growth in export prices indicates a strong demand for a country's exports, while a negative growth may signal a decline in demand or increased competition.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 1 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 3.2 %. Before that (Jul 2025): -0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.