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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 2.5% in January 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsQuarterlyReleased June 2026
Australia GDP Growth Rate YoY held to 2.5% in January 2026, released June 2026. The reading missed the 2.7% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.67%.
Latest Release
2.5
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.7
Actual: 2.5
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Australia) was reported at 2.5% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.2%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.4%, up from the prior three at 1.47%. In June readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 1.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Aug 18) and Westpac Consumer Confidence Change (Aug 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - AU
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 2.5 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 2.6 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 2.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Tuesday, August 18, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 83.9 | 81.7 | 83.60 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | 4.1 | -2.6 | -0.30 | High | |
| Wednesday, August 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | AU | Wage Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.20 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | Wage Price Index QoQ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Low | |
| Thursday, August 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:00 | AU | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.05 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | Participation Rate | 67 | 67.1 | 67.05 | Low | |
| 01:30 | AU | Unemployment Rate | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.60 | Medium | |
| 01:30 | AU | Employment Change | 76.3 | 12.5 | -5.55 | Medium | |
| 23:00 | AU | S&P Global Composite PMI | 53.2 | 51.9 | 50.80 | Low | |
| 23:00 | AU | S&P Global Services PMI | 53.6 | 52.5 | 51.40 | Medium | |
| 23:00 | AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52 | 50.9 | 50.70 | Medium | |