Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Home Loans QoQ fell to -4.3% in Q1 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Australia Home Loans QoQ fell to -4.3% in Q1 2026, released May 2026, down 13.7% from December's 9.4% reading. The reading missed the 5.1% consensus by 9.4%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.88%. Home Loans QoQ is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
-4.3
Actual
5.1
Consensus
9.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.9 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 5.1
Actual: -4.3
Error: +9.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Home Loans QoQ (Australia) was reported at -4.3% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 5.1% by 9.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 9.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.67%, up from the prior three at 1.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.9%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
SHARE
Home Loans QoQ - AU
Loading chart data...
About Home Loans QoQ — Australia
DEFINITION
Home Loans QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the number of home loans issued by lenders in a specific quarter compared to the previous quarter. This indicator is used to track the demand for home loans and can provide insights into the health of the housing market. A positive QoQ change indicates an increase in home loan activity, while a negative change may suggest a slowdown in the housing market. Home Loans QoQ is a valuable tool for investors, economists, and policymakers to monitor the overall strength of the real estate sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -4.3 %, consensus 5.1 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 10.6 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 4.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.