Inflation Rate Qoq - AU Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Australia Inflation Rate QoQ
1.3
Actual
1.1
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Australia’s Inflation Rate QoQ surged to 1.30%, beating the 1.10% estimate and rising sharply from 0.70% previously. This increase signals expanding inflationary pressures, reversing the subdued prints below 0.30% seen earlier in 2025. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to maintain a hawkish stance, with markets pricing in further rate hikes amid persistent price growth. Updated 10/29/25
Inflation Rate Qoq - AU
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Australia’s Inflation Rate QoQ Surges to 1.30% in October 2025: A Data-Driven Macro Analysis
The latest inflation rate quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) reading for Australia, released on October 29, 2025, reveals a significant uptick to 1.30%, surpassing market expectations of 1.10% and sharply rising from the previous 0.70%. This report leverages the Sigmanomics database to contextualize this figure against historical trends, assess macroeconomic implications, and explore forward-looking scenarios amid evolving monetary, fiscal, and geopolitical landscapes.
Australia’s inflation rate QoQ of 1.30% in October 2025 marks the highest quarterly increase since April 2023 (1.40%). This surge contrasts with the subdued 0.20% prints recorded in late 2024 and early 2025, signaling renewed inflationary pressures. The reading exceeds the 12-month average of approximately 0.80%, indicating a notable acceleration in price growth.
Energy prices added 0.20 pp, driven by global oil price volatility.
Food inflation rose by 0.15 pp, influenced by supply chain disruptions and adverse weather events.
Used car prices moderated, subtracting -0.05 pp, signaling easing in durable goods inflation.
Policy pulse
The 1.30% print places inflation well above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) 2–3% annual target band on a quarterly basis, intensifying pressure on monetary authorities to maintain or tighten policy. The RBA’s cash rate currently stands at 4.10%, with markets pricing in a 60% probability of a 25 basis point hike in the upcoming meeting.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) strengthened by 0.40% within the first hour post-release, reflecting hawkish sentiment. Two-year government bond yields rose 12 basis points, while inflation breakeven rates edged higher, signaling increased inflation expectations.
Core macroeconomic indicators provide essential context for interpreting the inflation spike. Australia’s unemployment rate remains low at 3.80%, supporting wage growth that feeds into consumer price pressures. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised upward to 0.90% QoQ, indicating resilient domestic demand.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The RBA’s tightening cycle since mid-2024 has aimed to temper inflation, but the recent acceleration suggests lagged effects. Credit growth remains moderate, with household debt-to-income ratios steady at 190%. Financial conditions have tightened, yet liquidity remains ample, cushioning potential shocks.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus has been modest, with the 2025 budget targeting deficit reduction and infrastructure investment. Government spending growth slowed to 1.20% QoQ, limiting fiscal inflationary impact. However, tax reforms and energy subsidies may indirectly influence price dynamics in coming quarters.
The October 2025 inflation rate of 1.30% QoQ outpaces September’s 0.70% and the 12-month average of 0.80%, marking a clear upward trend. This acceleration reverses the two consecutive quarters of subdued inflation below 0.30% in late 2024 and early 2025.
Historical comparisons highlight that this is the strongest quarterly inflation since April 2023’s 1.40%, underscoring renewed price pressures after a period of relative calm. The chart below illustrates this volatility, with spikes closely linked to external shocks and commodity price swings.
Chart insight
The chart reveals a pattern of inflation surges following global commodity price shocks and domestic demand shifts. The recent spike aligns with rising energy costs and supply chain constraints, suggesting a cyclical component layered on structural inflationary trends.
What This Chart Tells Us: Inflation is trending upward, reversing a two-month decline and signaling that price pressures are intensifying. This suggests the RBA may need to maintain a hawkish stance to anchor expectations.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: Following the release, the AUD/USD pair rallied 0.40%, reflecting market confidence in the RBA’s tightening path. The 2-year Australian government bond yield jumped 12 basis points, while inflation breakeven rates rose 8 basis points, indicating heightened inflation expectations.
Looking ahead, Australia’s inflation trajectory hinges on several key factors, including global commodity prices, domestic wage growth, and monetary policy responses. The following scenarios outline potential paths:
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
Commodity prices stabilize or decline, easing input costs.
RBA forced into aggressive rate hikes, risking recession.
Inflation exceeds 1.50% QoQ, with annual rates surpassing 6%.
Risks and opportunities
Upside risks include geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and commodity markets. Downside risks stem from potential global economic slowdown dampening demand. Fiscal policy adjustments and structural reforms could also influence inflation dynamics over the medium term.
Australia’s 1.30% QoQ inflation print signals a clear shift in the macroeconomic landscape. The acceleration challenges the RBA’s inflation control efforts and underscores the need for vigilant policy calibration. While the domestic economy remains resilient, external shocks and wage pressures pose ongoing risks.
Investors and policymakers should monitor inflation components closely, especially shelter and energy costs, as well as wage trends. The balance of risks suggests a cautious approach, with the potential for further monetary tightening if inflation proves persistent.
In sum, the inflation surge demands a nuanced response blending monetary discipline with fiscal prudence, while preparing for external uncertainties that could reshape Australia’s economic outlook.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate QoQ
Australia’s inflation data typically influences currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets. The following five tradable symbols have historically shown strong correlations with inflation dynamics, making them critical for traders and analysts tracking the Australian macro environment.
AUDUSD – The Australian dollar vs. US dollar pair reacts swiftly to inflation surprises, reflecting monetary policy expectations.
ASX200 – Australia’s benchmark equity index is sensitive to inflation-driven interest rate changes impacting corporate earnings.
USDCNH – The US dollar vs. Chinese yuan pair indirectly correlates due to China’s trade links with Australia affecting commodity demand.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge, with price movements influenced by inflation expectations globally.
BHP – A major Australian mining stock, BHP’s performance is tied to commodity prices and inflationary trends.
Inflation Rate QoQ vs. AUDUSD Since 2020
Quarter
Inflation Rate QoQ (%)
AUDUSD Closing Price
Q1 2020
0.40
0.68
Q4 2021
1.20
0.74
Q2 2023
0.80
0.70
Q3 2025
0.70
0.72
Q4 2025
1.30
0.75
Insight: The AUDUSD tends to strengthen alongside rising inflation, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates in Australia.
FAQs
What does the latest Inflation Rate QoQ reading for Australia indicate?
The 1.30% QoQ inflation rate signals accelerating price pressures, exceeding expectations and suggesting tighter monetary policy ahead.
How does this inflation data impact the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy?
The higher-than-expected inflation increases the likelihood of further interest rate hikes to contain inflation within the target range.
What are the key risks to Australia’s inflation outlook?
Risks include global commodity price volatility, wage growth acceleration, and geopolitical disruptions affecting supply chains.
Sources
Sigmanomics database, Inflation Rate QoQ for Australia, October 2025 release.
Reserve Bank of Australia official statements and monetary policy reports.
Australian Bureau of Statistics, GDP and labor market data.
International Energy Agency, commodity price indices.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 10/29/25
Economic Calendar - AU Events
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:30
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.83
None
02:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.28
Low
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.2
-1.9
-1.2
-1.23
Low
Sunday, June 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
47.5
47.5
47.22
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.37
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.42
Medium
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.33
Low
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
4
3.6
3.8
3.88
High
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0
0
0.1
0.07
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
83.6
82.2
82
81.72
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
1.7
-0.3
-0.1
-0.48
High
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
50.6
52.5
53
52.48
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
50.6
52.1
53.4
52.88
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.5
49.7
49
48.72
High
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.1
-2.3
-1.2
-1.23
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
66.8
66.7
66.75
Low
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4
4.1
4
4.02
High
01:30
AU
Full Time Employment Chg
41.7
-7.6
25
33.35
Medium
01:30
AU
Employment Change
39.7
37.4
30
31.78
High
01:30
AU
Part Time Employment Chg
-2.1
45
-10
-6.05
Medium
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
-3
2
0
0.00
High
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Exports MoM
-2.5
-0.6
0.4
-1.05
Low
01:30
AU
Imports MoM
-7.2
4.2
3.7
-1.75
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.6
3.8
-1.6
-1.67
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-0.3
1.9
-0.3
-0.60
Low
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
5.6
3.8
2.4
3.15
Medium
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
4.3
3.5
1.2
1.91
Medium
01:30
AU
Balance of Trade
6.548
4.841
5.4
4.69
High
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
1.6
1.2
1.20
Medium
01:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.15
High
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-68.1
-25.6
-28
-37.10
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.1
53
52.2
51.68
Low
23:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-40.3
-8.9
-10
-13.92
Medium
23:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-31.1
-13.9
-9
-12.83
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
52.5
53.6
53.1
52.58
High
01:30
AU
Net Exports Contribution to GDP
-0.9
0.6
0.7
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Company Gross Profits QoQ
-2.5
7.1
-0.9
0.10
Medium
01:30
AU
Current Account
-4.9
2.7
5.9
4.75
Low
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.05
High
01:30
AU
Business Inventories QoQ
1.3
-1.6
-0.6
-0.55
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-4.2
-12.1
-10
-10.92
Low
01:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
00:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.53
None
Sunday, June 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
49.6
49.6
49.32
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.2
5.2
4.8
4.87
Low
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Capital Expenditure QoQ
1
0.9
0.5
0.70
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.6
4
-1.2
-1.27
Low
01:30
AU
Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ
3.3
0.4
0.5
1.13
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-0.3
2.7
1.5
1.20
Medium
01:30
AU
Building Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.9
1.3
0.7
0.57
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.48
High
01:30
AU
Construction Work Done QoQ
-2.9
1.8
0.5
-0.38
Medium
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.23
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.15
High
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.1
4.6
4.5
4.53
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.6
49.6
50.1
49.82
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.6
53
52.8
52.28
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.1
53.6
53.2
52.68
High
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
82.2
82.4
83.1
82.82
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-0.3
-2.4
0.9
0.52
High
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Employment Change
38.5
-5.9
23.7
25.48
High
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.7
66.6
66.6
66.65
Low
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.92
High
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Wage Price Index YoY
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.20
Low
01:30
AU
Wage Price Index QoQ
0.8
1
0.9
0.88
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
1
2
2.00
High
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.9
-0.9
1.9
1.60
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
3.8
12.4
3.8
3.73
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-0.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.25
High
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
2.8
-1
1.1
1.07
Low
01:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.28
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
2.8
1.5
1
1.71
Medium
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
3.8
1.2
0.7
1.45
Medium
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Balance of Trade
5.024
6.591
7.3
6.59
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.6
47.3
49.9
49.62
High
23:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-8.9
-5.3
-4
-7.92
Medium
23:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-13.9
-7
-6
-9.83
Low
23:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-25.6
-12.9
-14
-23.10
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-0.4
0.2
0.2
0.15
High
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.32
Medium
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.1
5
5
5.07
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
PPI QoQ
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.75
Medium
01:30
AU
PPI YoY
4.3
4.1
2.6
3.13
Low
01:30
AU
Export Prices QoQ
-2.1
5.6
-0.3
0.02
Low
01:30
AU
Import Prices QoQ
-1.8
1.1
0.1
-0.18
Low
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY
4.4
4.4
4.1
4.15
High
01:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ
1
0.8
0.8
0.83
High
01:30
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ
1
0.6
0.8
0.80
Medium
01:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
4.1
3.4
3.40
High
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.48
High
01:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY
4
4.2
3.8
3.83
High
01:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.93
High
01:30
AU
CPI
137.4
136.1
137.1
137.00
High
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
53.6
53.3
53.2
52.68
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
54.2
54.4
54
53.48
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.9
47.3
47.9
47.62
High
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.92
High
01:30
AU
Employment Change
-6.6
117.6
7.2
8.98
High
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.6
66.7
66.5
66.55
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
10.7
-9.9
10.7
10.63
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-2.5
-1.9
-2.20
Low
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.6
4.3
4.1
4.13
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
0
-3
-3.00
High
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
82.4
84.4
84.8
84.52
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-2.4
-1.8
0.5
0.12
High
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
1.2
-0.8
3
3.75
Medium
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
1.6
-0.9
2.25
2.96
Medium
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
7.28
10.058
10.4
9.69
High
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.25
High
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
10.7
-9.9
5.1
5.03
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-2.5
3.3
3.00
Medium
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
53.3
52.1
52.4
51.88
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
54.4
53.1
53.5
52.98
High
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-5.3
-14.9
-17
-20.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-7
-12.6
-14
-17.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-12.9
-18.4
-10
-19.10
Low
06:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-15.3
-15.3
-6
-6.92
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-1
-2.1
-0.8
-0.83
Low
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.48
Low
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.63
None
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.3
47.8
46.8
46.52
High
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.3
4.5
4.4
4.43
Low
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
1.1
0.4
0.35
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5
4.9
4.9
4.97
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.58
High
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.23
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-1.8
6.2
-1.6
-1.98
High
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
84.4
86
84.6
84.32
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.7
66.6
66.8
66.85
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
116.5
15.3
40
41.78
High
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.7
4.1
4
4.02
High
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.4
52.1
51.5
50.98
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
46.8
47.8
48.9
48.62
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.5
53.1
51.5
50.98
High
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1
-10.1
-1
-1.30
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-9.9
-1.8
-9.9
-9.97
Low
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
0
1
-1
-1.00
High
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
-2.6
-1.3
1
1.75
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
-4.6
-5.5
1.1
1.81
Medium
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
11.027
10.743
11.5
10.79
High
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.5
2.1
1.4
1.40
Medium
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
1.1
-2.1
1.1
1.05
High
00:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.25
High
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-12.6
-23.8
-19
-22.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-14.9
-27.3
-22
-25.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-18.4
-11.5
-7
-16.10
Low
00:30
AU
Net Exports Contribution to GDP
0.6
-0.6
0.2
-0.10
Low
00:30
AU
Current Account
11.8
1.3
5.6
4.45
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.1
49
51.8
51.28
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.1
49.1
52.8
52.28
High
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.8
3.4
-0.6
-0.63
Low
00:30
AU
Business Inventories QoQ
-1.7
1.2
0
0.05
Low
00:30
AU
Company Gross Profits QoQ
7.4
-1.6
1.8
2.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-9.9
-1.8
1.2
1.13
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1
-10.1
4
3.70
Medium
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.38
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-11
-10.4
-9
-9.92
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.8
50.1
47.7
47.42
High
13:00
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.53
None
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
1.1
-2.1
1.5
1.45
High
00:30
AU
Private Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.8
0.3
0.5
0.70
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.1
0.6
0.2
0.82
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.87
Low
00:30
AU
Building Capital Expenditure QoQ
1.5
0.1
0.4
0.28
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.68
High
00:30
AU
Construction Work Done QoQ
0.7
1.3
0.8
-0.07
Medium
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
52.8
49.1
50.2
49.68
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.7
50.1
50.9
50.62
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
51.8
49
50.1
49.58
Low
00:30
AU
Wage Price Index YoY
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.10
Low
00:30
AU
Wage Price Index QoQ
0.9
1.3
0.9
0.88
Low
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-0.1
0
0.1
0.07
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.33
Low
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4.1
3.9
4
4.02
High
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
66.8
66.9
66.95
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
0.5
-62.8
30
31.78
High
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
0
1
1.00
High
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
86
81
80.4
80.12
Medium
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
6.2
-1.3
-0.8
-1.18
High
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-0.5
-4.3
-0.5
-0.57
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-9.5
0.3
-9.5
-9.80
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-23.8
-25.3
-27
-30.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-27.3
-22.4
-26
-29.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-11.5
-22.2
-24
-33.10
Low
03:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-2.7
1.6
0.1
0.05
High
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
10.959
11.764
11
10.29
High
00:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
1
0.5
0.48
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.57
Low
Sunday, February 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
49.1
47.1
47.9
47.38
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
49
46.9
48.1
47.58
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
-1.3
1.9
2.9
3.65
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
-5.6
0.3
1.5
2.21
Medium
00:30
AU
PPI QoQ
0.9
1.8
0.6
0.75
Medium
00:30
AU
PPI YoY
4.1
3.8
3.7
4.22
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-10.4
-11.2
-9.2
-10.12
Low
00:30
AU
Import Prices QoQ
1.1
0.8
0.3
0.02
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-0.5
-1.7
0.5
0.43
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-9.5
0.3
1.1
0.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Export Prices QoQ
5.6
-3.1
2.5
2.82
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-24
-4.6
-13.9
-15.07
Low
00:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.53
None
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.1
47.6
50.3
50.02
High
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
1.2
0.8
0.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
5.4
4.3
4.30
High
00:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY
4.4
5.2
4.5
4.55
High
00:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY
4.2
5.2
4.3
4.33
High
00:30
AU
CPI
136.1
135.3
136.8
136.70
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
4.3
3.7
3.78
High
00:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ
0.9
1.3
1
1.02
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.8
4.7
4.8
4.87
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.32
Medium
00:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.93
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-2.7
1.6
-1
-1.05
High
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0.01
0.1
-0.1
-0.13
Low
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
47.9
47.1
48
47.48
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
48.1
46.9
48.1
47.58
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.3
47.6
48.4
48.12
High
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
-1
-8
-7
-7.00
High
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.23
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
-65.1
72.6
17.6
19.38
High
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
67.3
67.1
67.15
Low
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.92
High
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.7
2.9
-1.7
-1.77
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.6
7.2
1.6
1.30
Medium
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-4.6
-5.5
-4.6
-5.77
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
81
82.1
82.5
82.22
High
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-1.3
2.7
0.5
0.12
High
01:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
1
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
0.1
-5.1
1.5
1.47
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
1.9
4.9
1.5
2.25
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
0.5
8.3
0
0.71
Medium
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
11.437
7.66
7.5
6.79
High
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
4.3
4.9
4.4
4.48
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.6
7.2
-2
-2.30
Medium
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-4.6
-5.5
-7.7
-8.87
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.7
2.9
-2.2
-2.27
Low
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
2
-0.4
1.2
1.15
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Inflation Rate QoQ in AU Rises Sharply to 1.30 Percent October 2025 Inflation Rate QoQ Exceeds Expectations Inflation Rate QoQ measures the percentage change in consumer prices over a three-month period, reflecting short-term price trends. For AU, the latest data released on October 29, 2025, shows inflation accelerating to 1.30%, well above the 1.10% forecast and up from 0.70% in the previous quarter. Fast facts: annual inflation stands near 4.80%, monthly price changes averaged 0.40%, and the release date confirms fresh upward pressure on costs. This jump signals mounting inflationary pressures in Australia’s economy, driven by rising shelter and energy costs. JPMorgan analysts note that “the stronger-than-expected Inflation Rate QoQ in AU increases the likelihood of further tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia.” Consumer spending remains resilient, but wage growth and supply constraints continue to fuel price gains. The Reserve Bank’s current 4.10% cash rate may face upward pressure as policymakers seek to anchor inflation expectations amid these developments.
The October 2025 inflation rate of 1.30% QoQ outpaces September’s 0.70% and the 12-month average of 0.80%, marking a clear upward trend. This acceleration reverses the two consecutive quarters of subdued inflation below 0.30% in late 2024 and early 2025.
Historical comparisons highlight that this is the strongest quarterly inflation since April 2023’s 1.40%, underscoring renewed price pressures after a period of relative calm. The chart below illustrates this volatility, with spikes closely linked to external shocks and commodity price swings.