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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Inflation Rate QoQ fell to 0.6% in Q2 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
Australia Inflation Rate QoQ fell to 0.6% in Q2 2026, released July 2026, down 0.8% from March's 1.4% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.7% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.89%. Inflation Rate QoQ is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
0.6
Actual
0.7
Consensus
1.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.7
Actual: 0.6
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate QoQ (Australia) was reported at 0.6% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.87%, up from the prior three at 0.43%. In July readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate QoQ has averaged 0.77%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Jul 31) and Ai Group Industry Index (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Inflation Rate QoQ - AU
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About Inflation Rate QoQ — Australia
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate QoQ (Quarter over Quarter) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in an economy from one quarter to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists, policymakers, and investors to track the rate of price increases and assess the health of an economy. A higher QoQ inflation rate indicates a faster pace of price growth, while a lower rate suggests a slower rate of inflation. This indicator is important for making informed decisions related to monetary policy, investment strategies, and budget planning.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.6 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 1.4 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | AU | Building Permits MoM | 7.2 | -1.6 | -1 | 0.90 | Medium |
| 01:30 | AU | Import Price Index QoQ | 5.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Building Permits YoY | 8.9 | 5.5 | -0.1 | 1.10 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | 5.7 | 0.1 | 0 | 2.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Private House Approvals MoM | 0.4 | 2.8 | -1 | -0.38 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.80 | Low |
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.42 | Medium |
| 01:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.70 | Low |
| 01:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.5 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 8.35 | Low |