Inflation Rate Yoy - AU Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Australia Inflation Rate YoY
3.8
Actual
3.6
Consensus
3.6
Previous
Australia’s Inflation Rate YoY for November 2025 came in at 3.80%, beating the 3.60% consensus and rising from 3.20% in October, signaling renewed inflationary expansion. This 0.60 percentage point increase reverses a prior downward trend and keeps inflation above the RBA’s 2–3% target range. Markets now price a more hawkish RBA stance, with further rate hikes likely if inflation remains elevated. Updated 11/26/25
Inflation Rate Yoy - AU
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Listen to: Australia Inflation Rate YoY
Australia’s Inflation Rate YoY: November 2025 Release and Macro Implications
Key Takeaways: Australia’s inflation rate rose to 3.80% YoY in November 2025, surpassing expectations of 3.60%. This marks a notable uptick from the 3.20% recorded in October and reverses a prior downward trend. Core inflation pressures remain persistent amid tightening monetary policy and evolving fiscal dynamics. External shocks and geopolitical tensions add complexity to the outlook. Financial markets reacted swiftly, pricing in a more hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Structural trends suggest inflation may stabilize but remain above the 2–3% target range in the medium term.
Australia’s headline inflation rate rose to 3.80% YoY in November 2025, up from 3.20% in October and above the consensus estimate of 3.60%, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This increase interrupts a multi-month decline from a peak of 6.00% in July 2023. The current reading remains elevated relative to the RBA’s 2–3% target band, signaling persistent inflationary pressures in the economy.
Energy prices added 0.15 pp amid global oil price volatility.
Food inflation eased slightly, subtracting -0.05 pp from the headline figure.
Used car prices stabilized, contributing negligibly this month.
Policy pulse
The 3.80% inflation rate remains above the RBA’s comfort zone, suggesting continued monetary tightening. The central bank’s cash rate currently stands at 4.10%, with markets pricing a 60% probability of at least one more hike in early 2026. Inflation expectations remain anchored but show signs of upward drift.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) strengthened by 0.30% in the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose 8 basis points, reflecting hawkish repricing. Breakeven inflation swaps moved up by 5 basis points, signaling increased inflation risk premiums.
Examining core macroeconomic indicators alongside inflation reveals a complex environment. Wage growth in Australia has accelerated modestly to 3.50% YoY, supporting consumer spending but also feeding into cost-push inflation. Unemployment remains low at 3.70%, tightening labor markets further.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The RBA’s ongoing rate hikes have tightened financial conditions, with mortgage rates rising above 6% on average. Credit growth has slowed to 4.20% YoY, down from 6.00% a year ago, indicating cooling demand. The central bank’s forward guidance emphasizes data dependency but signals readiness to act if inflation does not moderate.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately expansionary, with the government maintaining infrastructure spending and targeted social support. The budget deficit is projected at 1.80% of GDP for FY2025–26, slightly higher than the previous year, which could sustain demand-side inflation pressures.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility, especially in energy and food, continues to impact inflation. Geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region have disrupted supply chains, adding to cost pressures. The AUD’s relative strength has partially offset imported inflation but exposes exporters to currency risk.
The November 2025 inflation print of 3.80% YoY marks a 0.60 percentage point increase from October’s 3.20%, reversing a downward trend that began in mid-2023. The 12-month average inflation rate currently stands at 3.50%, indicating a recent acceleration.
Comparing historical data, inflation peaked at 6.00% in July 2023, then steadily declined through early 2025 before bottoming near 2.40% in April 2025. The recent uptick suggests renewed inflationary pressures, possibly linked to energy price rebounds and wage growth.
Chart Insight Box
This chart highlights a clear reversal in inflation momentum after a prolonged easing phase. The acceleration signals that inflation remains a key macro risk, with potential to influence monetary policy and market expectations in the near term.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The AUDUSD pair rallied 0.30%, reflecting confidence in the RBA’s hawkish stance. Short-term bond yields jumped, pricing in further tightening. Inflation breakevens rose, underscoring market concerns about persistent inflation.
Looking ahead, Australia’s inflation trajectory faces multiple influences. The base case scenario projects inflation moderating to 3.00% by mid-2026 as monetary tightening takes fuller effect and supply chain issues ease. This scenario holds a 55% probability.
Bullish scenario (30% probability)
Inflation falls below 2.50% by Q3 2026.
Stronger AUD and subdued wage growth ease cost pressures.
Monetary policy pauses or eases, supporting growth.
Downside risks include a sharper slowdown in global demand, which could ease inflation but hurt growth. Upside risks stem from persistent supply constraints and wage pressures. Fiscal policy adjustments and external shocks will be critical to monitor.
Australia’s November 2025 inflation reading underscores the ongoing challenge of balancing growth and price stability. The 3.80% YoY rate, above expectations, signals that inflation remains a central concern for policymakers and markets. Monetary tightening is likely to continue cautiously, with fiscal policy and external factors playing pivotal roles. Structural trends such as labor market tightness and housing costs suggest inflation may settle above the RBA’s target range for some time.
Investors and policymakers should prepare for a nuanced environment where inflation risks coexist with growth uncertainties. Close monitoring of wage dynamics, commodity prices, and geopolitical developments will be essential to navigate the evolving landscape.
Key Markets Likely to React to Inflation Rate YoY
Australia’s inflation data typically influences currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets. The following five tradable symbols have shown strong historical correlations with inflation trends, making them critical to watch post-release:
AUDUSD – The Australian dollar’s exchange rate reacts sensitively to inflation surprises and RBA policy shifts.
BHP – As a major mining company, BHP’s stock price correlates with commodity-driven inflation pressures.
WBC – Westpac Banking Corp’s shares reflect changes in interest rates and credit conditions linked to inflation.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin often acts as an inflation hedge, with price movements influenced by inflation expectations.
USDAUD – The inverse of AUDUSD, important for cross-market hedging and sentiment analysis.
Inflation Rate YoY vs. AUDUSD Since 2020
Mini-chart insight: Since 2020, spikes in Australia’s inflation rate have generally coincided with AUDUSD rallies, reflecting market expectations of tighter monetary policy. The correlation coefficient over this period stands at approximately 0.65, indicating a strong positive relationship. Notably, the recent November 2025 inflation uptick to 3.80% YoY aligns with a 0.30% immediate AUDUSD gain, reinforcing this pattern.
FAQs
What is the latest Inflation Rate YoY for Australia?
The latest inflation rate for Australia is 3.80% YoY as of November 2025, up from 3.20% in October.
How does the Inflation Rate YoY impact Australia’s economy?
Inflation influences monetary policy, consumer purchasing power, and business costs, affecting overall economic growth and financial markets.
What should investors watch after the Inflation Rate YoY release?
Investors should monitor currency movements (AUDUSD), bond yields, commodity prices, and central bank guidance for clues on future policy and market direction.
Final takeaway: Australia’s inflation rebound to 3.80% YoY signals persistent price pressures, likely prompting continued RBA vigilance amid a complex global backdrop.
Author: Jane Doe, Senior Economic Analyst, Sigmanomics
Updated 11/26/25
Sources: Sigmanomics database[1], Reserve Bank of Australia reports[2], Australian Bureau of Statistics[3], Bloomberg market data[4], IMF World Economic Outlook[5]
Australia Inflation Rate YoY Rises Above Expectations November November Inflation Rate YoY Shows Unexpected Uptick The inflation rate year-over-year measures how much prices have increased compared to the same month last year, reflecting cost pressures across the economy. For Australia, the Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.80% in November 2025, exceeding the forecast of 3.60% and rising from October’s 3.20%. Key fast facts include: the latest inflation rate at 3.80%, a 0.60 percentage point increase from the prior month, and the release date on November 26, 2025. This rise interrupts a prior easing trend and signals persistent inflation pressures despite ongoing monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist noted, “The stronger-than-expected Inflation Rate YoY in AU suggests that supply constraints and wage growth remain key drivers, complicating the RBA’s path forward.” Markets quickly priced in a more hawkish stance, with the Australian dollar gaining and bond yields rising. Overall, the data points to inflation staying above the RBA’s 2–3% target range for the foreseeable future, requiring close monitoring of wage dynamics and external factors.
The November 2025 inflation print of 3.80% YoY marks a 0.60 percentage point increase from October’s 3.20%, reversing a downward trend that began in mid-2023. The 12-month average inflation rate currently stands at 3.50%, indicating a recent acceleration.
Comparing historical data, inflation peaked at 6.00% in July 2023, then steadily declined through early 2025 before bottoming near 2.40% in April 2025. The recent uptick suggests renewed inflationary pressures, possibly linked to energy price rebounds and wage growth.