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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.0% in May 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
Australia Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.0% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.2% from April's 4.2% reading. The print came in cooler than the 4.4% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. Inflation Rate YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 4.4%, vs 3.68% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 82nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4
Actual
4.4
Consensus
4.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 4.3
Actual: 4
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (Australia) was reported at 4% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.4% by 0.4%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.56%, ranging from 2.1% to 4.2% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.97%, up from the prior three at 3.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Jul 13) and Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Jul 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Inflation Rate YoY - AU
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About Inflation Rate YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4 %, consensus 4.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.2 %. Before that (Jan 2026): 4.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.73) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence Index | 80.6 | 82.6 | 78.15 | Medium | |
| 00:30 | AU | Westpac Consumer Confidence Change | -2.9 | 2.5 | -2.85 | High | |
| 01:30 | AU | NAB Business Confidence | -14 | -12 | -23.50 | High | |