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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.2% in April 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased May 2026
Australia Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.2% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.4% from March's 4.6% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 3.32%. Over the past 3 months, Inflation Rate YoY averaged 4.15%, vs 3.67% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.2
Actual
4.4
Consensus
4.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 4.35
Actual: 4.2
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| S&P/ASX 200 | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Bullish S&P | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate YoY (Australia) was reported at 4.2% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.4% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.5%, ranging from 2.1% to 4.2% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.9%, up from the prior three at 3.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Inflation Rate YoY - AU
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About Inflation Rate YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services over a 12-month period. It is a key measure of inflation and is used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of an economy and make informed decisions regarding monetary policy. A higher inflation rate can indicate a growing economy, but if it rises too quickly, it can lead to negative effects such as decreased purchasing power and higher interest rates. Conversely, a lower inflation rate can signal a slowing economy, but if it falls too low, it can lead to deflation and potential economic instability. The Inflation Rate YoY is an important tool for understanding and managing the impact of price changes on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.2 %, consensus 4.4 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 4.1 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 3.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.73) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.