Producer Price Index Qoq - AU Economic Data | Sigmanomics | Sigmanomics
Australia Producer Price Index QoQ
1
Actual
0.8
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Australia’s Producer Price Index QoQ surged to 1.00%, beating the 0.80% estimate and accelerating from 0.70% in Q2 2025. This 0.30 percentage point rise signals expanding upstream inflation pressures, marking the highest quarterly increase since mid-2024. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to maintain or intensify its tightening cycle as persistent cost pressures challenge inflation targets. Updated 11/1/25
Producer Price Index Qoq - AU
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Australia’s Producer Price Index QoQ Surges to 1.00% in Q3 2025: Implications and Outlook
Key Takeaways: Australia’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.00% QoQ in Q3 2025, beating the 0.80% estimate and accelerating from 0.70% in Q2. This marks the highest quarterly increase since mid-2023, signaling renewed upstream inflation pressures. Core macro indicators show mixed signals amid tightening monetary policy and fiscal consolidation. External risks and financial market sentiment remain cautious. Structural trends suggest persistent cost pressures in key sectors. Forward scenarios range from sustained inflation to moderate easing depending on global and domestic developments.
The Australian Producer Price Index (PPI) for Q3 2025 recorded a 1.00% increase quarter-over-quarter, surpassing the consensus forecast of 0.80% and accelerating from the previous quarter’s 0.70%. This data, sourced from the Sigmanomics database, reflects the highest quarterly rise in over a year, highlighting intensifying cost pressures at the production level.
Drivers this month
Energy prices contributed 0.35 percentage points (pp), reflecting global oil and gas price volatility.
Manufacturing input costs rose by 0.25 pp, driven by raw material shortages and supply chain constraints.
Transport and logistics costs increased by 0.10 pp due to higher fuel and labor expenses.
Offsetting factors included a slight easing in metal prices (-0.05 pp).
Policy pulse
The PPI reading sits above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) inflation target range, reinforcing concerns about persistent upstream inflation. The RBA’s recent tightening cycle, including a 25 basis point hike in September 2025, aims to temper demand-side pressures but may take longer to impact producer costs.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) strengthened 0.30% within the first hour post-release, reflecting hawkish sentiment. Short-term bond yields rose 5 basis points, while 2-year breakeven inflation rates edged up 3 basis points, signaling inflation expectations remain elevated.
The PPI increase coincides with mixed signals from core macroeconomic indicators. GDP growth for Q3 2025 was revised to 0.60% QoQ, slightly below expectations but still positive. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation remains sticky at 4.20% YoY, while wage growth accelerated to 3.80% YoY, sustaining cost-push inflation risks.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The RBA’s tightening stance, with cumulative hikes totaling 125 basis points since mid-2024, aims to anchor inflation expectations. Financial conditions have tightened, with credit growth slowing to 3.10% YoY and mortgage rates rising above 6%. However, the lagged effect on producer costs is evident as upstream inflation remains elevated.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal consolidation efforts continue, with the 2025-26 budget targeting a deficit reduction to 2.50% of GDP. Infrastructure spending remains robust but is balanced by restrained social welfare outlays. These measures may moderate domestic demand, but supply-side inflation pressures persist.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Global commodity price volatility, particularly in energy and metals, continues to impact Australia’s PPI. Geopolitical tensions in the Asia-Pacific region and supply chain disruptions from China’s intermittent lockdowns add uncertainty to inflation dynamics.
The Q3 2025 PPI print of 1.00% QoQ marks a clear acceleration from 0.70% in Q2 and exceeds the 12-month average quarterly rise of 0.65%. This uptick reflects broad-based cost pressures across energy, manufacturing, and food sectors.
Compared to historical data, this is the strongest quarterly increase since Q2 2024’s 1.05%, and well above the subdued 0.10%-0.30% quarterly gains seen in 2013. The data suggests a reacceleration of upstream inflation after a brief moderation in mid-2025.
Chart insight
The chart highlights a clear upward trend in producer prices, reversing a two-quarter slowdown. The sustained rise in input costs signals potential pass-through to consumer prices, complicating the inflation outlook and monetary policy calibration.
What This Chart Tells Us: The PPI is trending upward, indicating renewed inflationary pressures at the production level. This trend may foreshadow persistent consumer inflation and justify continued monetary tightening.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: AUD/USD rallied 0.30%, 2-year government bond yields rose 5 basis points, and 2-year breakeven inflation rates increased by 3 basis points, reflecting heightened inflation risk perceptions.
Looking ahead, the PPI trajectory will be shaped by several factors. The RBA’s monetary tightening may gradually dampen demand, but supply-side shocks and global commodity volatility could sustain cost pressures.
Scenario analysis
Bullish (20% probability): Supply chain normalization and easing commodity prices reduce PPI growth to 0.40% QoQ by Q1 2026, easing inflation pressures and supporting a pause in rate hikes.
Base (60% probability): PPI growth moderates to 0.70% QoQ over the next two quarters, consistent with moderate inflation persistence and gradual monetary policy tightening.
Bearish (20% probability): Continued geopolitical tensions and energy price shocks push PPI above 1.20% QoQ, forcing the RBA into more aggressive rate hikes and risking economic slowdown.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
Long-term trends such as labor market tightness, climate-related supply disruptions, and evolving trade dynamics suggest that inflationary pressures at the producer level may remain elevated. Investment in automation and supply chain resilience could mitigate these risks over time.
The latest Australian PPI data signals a notable uptick in upstream inflation pressures, challenging the RBA’s inflation-fighting efforts. While monetary and fiscal policies aim to moderate demand, external shocks and structural factors complicate the outlook. Market participants should brace for continued volatility in inflation metrics and policy responses.
Investors and policymakers must monitor commodity markets, wage trends, and geopolitical developments closely. The balance of risks remains tilted toward persistent inflation, but a soft landing remains achievable if supply-side constraints ease.
Key Markets Likely to React to Producer Price Index QoQ
The Australian Producer Price Index is a critical gauge of inflationary pressures that influence currency strength, bond yields, and equity valuations. Markets sensitive to inflation expectations and commodity prices typically show pronounced reactions to PPI releases.
AUDUSD: The Australian dollar vs. US dollar pair often moves sharply on inflation data, reflecting monetary policy expectations.
ASX: Australia’s benchmark stock index reacts to inflation-driven shifts in corporate earnings and interest rates.
USDCNH: The US dollar vs. Chinese yuan pair is relevant due to China’s impact on Australia’s trade and commodity prices.
BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s price can reflect broader risk sentiment shifts triggered by inflation surprises.
BHP: As a major Australian mining company, BHP’s stock price is sensitive to commodity price-driven inflation.
Insight: PPI vs. AUDUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, quarterly changes in Australia’s PPI have shown a positive correlation (~0.65) with movements in AUDUSD. Periods of rising producer prices often coincide with AUD appreciation, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy. For example, the 1.00% PPI spike in Q3 2025 corresponded with a 0.30% AUDUSD rally, underscoring the currency’s sensitivity to inflation data.
FAQs
What does the Producer Price Index QoQ indicate for Australia?
The Producer Price Index QoQ measures changes in prices received by domestic producers. A rise signals increasing upstream inflation pressures, which can lead to higher consumer prices.
How does the latest PPI reading affect monetary policy?
The 1.00% QoQ increase suggests persistent inflation, likely prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to maintain or intensify its tightening cycle to meet inflation targets.
Why is the Producer Price Index important for investors?
PPI influences inflation expectations, interest rates, and currency strength, all of which impact asset prices across equities, bonds, and forex markets.
Final Takeaway: Australia’s accelerating PPI signals persistent inflation risks, challenging policymakers and markets to balance growth and price stability amid global uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
AUDUSD – Australian dollar vs US dollar, sensitive to inflation and monetary policy shifts.
ASX – Australia’s main stock index, impacted by inflation and interest rate changes.
USDCNH – US dollar vs Chinese yuan, relevant due to China’s trade influence on Australia.
BHP – Major Australian mining stock, sensitive to commodity-driven inflation.
Economic Calendar - AU Events
Monday, July 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
02:30
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.7
0.8
0.8
0.83
None
02:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.28
Low
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.2
-1.9
-1.2
-1.23
Low
Sunday, June 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.2
47.5
47.5
47.22
High
Friday, June 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.37
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.42
Medium
Thursday, June 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.33
Low
Wednesday, June 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
4
3.6
3.8
3.88
High
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0
0
0.1
0.07
Low
Tuesday, June 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
83.6
82.2
82
81.72
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
1.7
-0.3
-0.1
-0.48
High
Thursday, June 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
50.6
52.5
53
52.48
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
50.6
52.1
53.4
52.88
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.5
49.7
49
48.72
High
Monday, June 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.1
-2.3
-1.2
-1.23
Low
Thursday, June 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
66.8
66.7
66.75
Low
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4
4.1
4
4.02
High
01:30
AU
Full Time Employment Chg
41.7
-7.6
25
33.35
Medium
01:30
AU
Employment Change
39.7
37.4
30
31.78
High
01:30
AU
Part Time Employment Chg
-2.1
45
-10
-6.05
Medium
Tuesday, June 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
-3
2
0
0.00
High
Thursday, June 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Exports MoM
-2.5
-0.6
0.4
-1.05
Low
01:30
AU
Imports MoM
-7.2
4.2
3.7
-1.75
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.6
3.8
-1.6
-1.67
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-0.3
1.9
-0.3
-0.60
Low
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
5.6
3.8
2.4
3.15
Medium
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
4.3
3.5
1.2
1.91
Medium
01:30
AU
Balance of Trade
6.548
4.841
5.4
4.69
High
Wednesday, June 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.1
1.6
1.2
1.20
Medium
01:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.15
High
Tuesday, June 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-68.1
-25.6
-28
-37.10
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.1
53
52.2
51.68
Low
23:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-40.3
-8.9
-10
-13.92
Medium
23:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-31.1
-13.9
-9
-12.83
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
52.5
53.6
53.1
52.58
High
01:30
AU
Net Exports Contribution to GDP
-0.9
0.6
0.7
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Company Gross Profits QoQ
-2.5
7.1
-0.9
0.10
Medium
01:30
AU
Current Account
-4.9
2.7
5.9
4.75
Low
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.05
High
01:30
AU
Business Inventories QoQ
1.3
-1.6
-0.6
-0.55
Low
Monday, June 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
06:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-4.2
-12.1
-10
-10.92
Low
01:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.18
Low
00:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.53
None
Sunday, June 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.7
49.6
49.6
49.32
High
Friday, May 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.2
5.2
4.8
4.87
Low
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
Thursday, May 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private Capital Expenditure QoQ
1
0.9
0.5
0.70
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.6
4
-1.2
-1.27
Low
01:30
AU
Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ
3.3
0.4
0.5
1.13
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-0.3
2.7
1.5
1.20
Medium
01:30
AU
Building Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.9
1.3
0.7
0.57
Low
Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.48
High
01:30
AU
Construction Work Done QoQ
-2.9
1.8
0.5
-0.38
Medium
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0
-0.1
-0.2
-0.23
Low
Tuesday, May 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.1
-0.4
0.2
0.15
High
Thursday, May 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.1
4.6
4.5
4.53
Low
Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.6
49.6
50.1
49.82
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.6
53
52.8
52.28
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.1
53.6
53.2
52.68
High
Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
82.2
82.4
83.1
82.82
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-0.3
-2.4
0.9
0.52
High
Thursday, May 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Employment Change
38.5
-5.9
23.7
25.48
High
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.7
66.6
66.6
66.65
Low
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.92
High
Wednesday, May 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Wage Price Index YoY
4.1
4.2
4.2
4.20
Low
01:30
AU
Wage Price Index QoQ
0.8
1
0.9
0.88
Low
Monday, May 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
1
2
2.00
High
Thursday, May 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.9
-0.9
1.9
1.60
Low
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
3.8
12.4
3.8
3.73
Low
Tuesday, May 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
04:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-0.4
0.2
-0.2
-0.25
High
Monday, May 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
2.8
-1
1.1
1.07
Low
01:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.28
Low
Friday, May 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
2.8
1.5
1
1.71
Medium
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
3.8
1.2
0.7
1.45
Medium
Thursday, May 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Balance of Trade
5.024
6.591
7.3
6.59
Medium
Tuesday, April 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.6
47.3
49.9
49.62
High
23:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-8.9
-5.3
-4
-7.92
Medium
23:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-13.9
-7
-6
-9.83
Low
23:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-25.6
-12.9
-14
-23.10
Low
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
01:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-0.4
0.2
0.2
0.15
High
01:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.32
Medium
01:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5.1
5
5
5.07
Low
Friday, April 26, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
PPI QoQ
0.9
0.9
0.6
0.75
Medium
01:30
AU
PPI YoY
4.3
4.1
2.6
3.13
Low
01:30
AU
Export Prices QoQ
-2.1
5.6
-0.3
0.02
Low
01:30
AU
Import Prices QoQ
-1.8
1.1
0.1
-0.18
Low
Wednesday, April 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY
4.4
4.4
4.1
4.15
High
01:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ
1
0.8
0.8
0.83
High
01:30
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ
1
0.6
0.8
0.80
Medium
01:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
3.6
4.1
3.4
3.40
High
01:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.48
High
01:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY
4
4.2
3.8
3.83
High
01:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ
1.1
0.9
0.9
0.93
High
01:30
AU
CPI
137.4
136.1
137.1
137.00
High
Monday, April 22, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
53.6
53.3
53.2
52.68
Low
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
54.2
54.4
54
53.48
High
23:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
49.9
47.3
47.9
47.62
High
Thursday, April 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.92
High
01:30
AU
Employment Change
-6.6
117.6
7.2
8.98
High
01:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.6
66.7
66.5
66.55
Low
Wednesday, April 17, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.17
Low
Thursday, April 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
10.7
-9.9
10.7
10.63
Low
01:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-2.5
-1.9
-2.20
Low
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.6
4.3
4.1
4.13
Low
Tuesday, April 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
0
-3
-3.00
High
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
82.4
84.4
84.8
84.52
Medium
00:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-2.4
-1.8
0.5
0.12
High
Monday, April 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
1.2
-0.8
3
3.75
Medium
01:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
1.6
-0.9
2.25
2.96
Medium
Friday, April 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
7.28
10.058
10.4
9.69
High
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
1.1
0.3
0.25
High
Thursday, April 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
10.7
-9.9
5.1
5.03
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1.9
-2.5
3.3
3.00
Medium
Wednesday, April 3, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
53.3
52.1
52.4
51.88
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
54.4
53.1
53.5
52.98
High
Tuesday, April 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-5.3
-14.9
-17
-20.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-7
-12.6
-14
-17.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-12.9
-18.4
-10
-19.10
Low
06:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-15.3
-15.3
-6
-6.92
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-1
-2.1
-0.8
-0.83
Low
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.48
Low
Monday, April 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.63
None
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.3
47.8
46.8
46.52
High
Thursday, March 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.3
4.5
4.4
4.43
Low
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
0.3
1.1
0.4
0.35
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
5
4.9
4.9
4.97
Low
Wednesday, March 27, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.58
High
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.23
Low
Monday, March 25, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-1.8
6.2
-1.6
-1.98
High
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
84.4
86
84.6
84.32
Medium
Thursday, March 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.7
66.6
66.8
66.85
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
116.5
15.3
40
41.78
High
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.7
4.1
4
4.02
High
Wednesday, March 20, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.4
52.1
51.5
50.98
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
46.8
47.8
48.9
48.62
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.5
53.1
51.5
50.98
High
Tuesday, March 19, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
03:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
Tuesday, March 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1
-10.1
-1
-1.30
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-9.9
-1.8
-9.9
-9.97
Low
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
0
1
-1
-1.00
High
Thursday, March 7, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
-2.6
-1.3
1
1.75
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
-4.6
-5.5
1.1
1.81
Medium
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
11.027
10.743
11.5
10.79
High
Wednesday, March 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate YoY
1.5
2.1
1.4
1.40
Medium
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
1.1
-2.1
1.1
1.05
High
00:30
AU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.25
High
Tuesday, March 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-12.6
-23.8
-19
-22.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-14.9
-27.3
-22
-25.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-18.4
-11.5
-7
-16.10
Low
00:30
AU
Net Exports Contribution to GDP
0.6
-0.6
0.2
-0.10
Low
00:30
AU
Current Account
11.8
1.3
5.6
4.45
Low
Monday, March 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
52.1
49
51.8
51.28
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
53.1
49.1
52.8
52.28
High
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
-2.8
3.4
-0.6
-0.63
Low
00:30
AU
Business Inventories QoQ
-1.7
1.2
0
0.05
Low
00:30
AU
Company Gross Profits QoQ
7.4
-1.6
1.8
2.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-9.9
-1.8
1.2
1.13
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-1
-10.1
4
3.70
Medium
00:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
-0.1
0.3
0.4
0.38
Low
Friday, March 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-11
-10.4
-9
-9.92
Low
Thursday, February 29, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.8
50.1
47.7
47.42
High
13:00
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.53
None
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
1.1
-2.1
1.5
1.45
High
00:30
AU
Private Capital Expenditure QoQ
0.8
0.3
0.5
0.70
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Plant Machinery Capital Expenditure QoQ
-0.1
0.6
0.2
0.82
Low
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.87
Low
00:30
AU
Building Capital Expenditure QoQ
1.5
0.1
0.4
0.28
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.42
Medium
Wednesday, February 28, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.68
High
00:30
AU
Construction Work Done QoQ
0.7
1.3
0.8
-0.07
Medium
Wednesday, February 21, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
52.8
49.1
50.2
49.68
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
47.7
50.1
50.9
50.62
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
51.8
49
50.1
49.58
Low
00:30
AU
Wage Price Index YoY
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.10
Low
00:30
AU
Wage Price Index QoQ
0.9
1.3
0.9
0.88
Low
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
-0.1
0
0.1
0.07
Low
Thursday, February 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.5
4.3
4.33
Low
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
4.1
3.9
4
4.02
High
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
66.8
66.9
66.95
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
0.5
-62.8
30
31.78
High
Tuesday, February 13, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
1
0
1
1.00
High
Monday, February 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
86
81
80.4
80.12
Medium
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
6.2
-1.3
-0.8
-1.18
High
Thursday, February 8, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-0.5
-4.3
-0.5
-0.57
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-9.5
0.3
-9.5
-9.80
Low
Tuesday, February 6, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Ai Group Manufacturing Index
-23.8
-25.3
-27
-30.83
Low
22:00
AU
Ai Group Industry Index
-27.3
-22.4
-26
-29.92
Medium
22:00
AU
Ai Group Construction Index
-11.5
-22.2
-24
-33.10
Low
03:30
AU
RBA Interest Rate Decision
4.35
4.35
4.35
4.35
High
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-2.7
1.6
0.1
0.05
High
Monday, February 5, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
10.959
11.764
11
10.29
High
00:30
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
0.3
1
0.5
0.48
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.57
Low
Sunday, February 4, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
49.1
47.1
47.9
47.38
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
49
46.9
48.1
47.58
Low
Friday, February 2, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
-1.3
1.9
2.9
3.65
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
-5.6
0.3
1.5
2.21
Medium
00:30
AU
PPI QoQ
0.9
1.8
0.6
0.75
Medium
00:30
AU
PPI YoY
4.1
3.8
3.7
4.22
Low
Thursday, February 1, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
05:30
AU
Commodity Prices YoY
-10.4
-11.2
-9.2
-10.12
Low
00:30
AU
Import Prices QoQ
1.1
0.8
0.3
0.02
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-0.5
-1.7
0.5
0.43
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
-9.5
0.3
1.1
0.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Export Prices QoQ
5.6
-3.1
2.5
2.82
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-24
-4.6
-13.9
-15.07
Low
00:01
AU
CoreLogic Dwelling Prices MoM
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.53
None
Wednesday, January 31, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.1
47.6
50.3
50.02
High
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate QoQ
0.6
1.2
0.8
0.80
Medium
00:30
AU
Inflation Rate YoY
4.1
5.4
4.3
4.30
High
00:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY
4.4
5.2
4.5
4.55
High
00:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YoY
4.2
5.2
4.3
4.33
High
00:30
AU
CPI
136.1
135.3
136.8
136.70
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.40
Low
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
3.4
4.3
3.7
3.78
High
00:30
AU
RBA Weighted Median CPI QoQ
0.9
1.3
1
1.02
High
00:30
AU
Private Sector Credit YoY
4.8
4.7
4.8
4.87
Low
00:30
AU
Housing Credit MoM
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.32
Medium
00:30
AU
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QoQ
0.8
1.2
0.9
0.93
High
Tuesday, January 30, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
-2.7
1.6
-1
-1.05
High
Wednesday, January 24, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:00
AU
Westpac Leading Index MoM
0.01
0.1
-0.1
-0.13
Low
Tuesday, January 23, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Services PMI
47.9
47.1
48
47.48
High
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Composite PMI
48.1
46.9
48.1
47.58
Low
22:00
AU
Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI
50.3
47.6
48.4
48.12
High
00:30
AU
NAB Business Confidence
-1
-8
-7
-7.00
High
Thursday, January 18, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
01:00
AU
Consumer Inflation Expectations
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.23
Low
00:30
AU
Employment Change
-65.1
72.6
17.6
19.38
High
00:30
AU
Participation Rate
66.8
67.3
67.1
67.15
Low
00:30
AU
Unemployment Rate
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.92
High
Tuesday, January 16, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.7
2.9
-1.7
-1.77
Low
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.6
7.2
1.6
1.30
Medium
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-4.6
-5.5
-4.6
-5.77
Low
Monday, January 15, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index
81
82.1
82.5
82.22
High
23:30
AU
Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
-1.3
2.7
0.5
0.12
High
01:00
AU
TD-MI Inflation Gauge MoM
1
0.3
0.2
0.18
Low
00:30
AU
ANZ-Indeed Job Ads MoM
0.1
-5.1
1.5
1.47
Low
Friday, January 12, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Investment Lending for Homes
1.9
4.9
1.5
2.25
Medium
00:30
AU
Home Loans MoM
0.5
8.3
0
0.71
Medium
Thursday, January 11, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Balance of Trade
11.437
7.66
7.5
6.79
High
Wednesday, January 10, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Monthly CPI Indicator
4.3
4.9
4.4
4.48
High
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast
Impact
00:30
AU
Building Permits MoM
1.6
7.2
-2
-2.30
Medium
00:30
AU
Building Permits YoY
-4.6
-5.5
-7.7
-8.87
Low
00:30
AU
Private House Approvals MoM
-1.7
2.9
-2.2
-2.27
Low
00:30
AU
Retail Sales MoM
2
-0.4
1.2
1.15
High
Symbol
Price
Analysis and Forecast
Producer Price Index QoQ Rises 1.00 Percent in Australia Australia’s Producer Price Index QoQ Accelerates in Q3 2025 The Producer Price Index QoQ measures the change in prices domestic producers receive for their goods each quarter, reflecting upstream inflation pressures. For Australia, the latest data shows a 1.00% increase in the third quarter of 2025, surpassing the 0.80% forecast and rising from 0.70% in the previous quarter. This marks the strongest quarterly gain since mid-2023, signaling intensifying cost pressures in key sectors such as energy and manufacturing. JPMorgan analysts note that this acceleration complicates the Reserve Bank of Australia’s efforts to bring inflation back within target, as upstream price rises often feed into consumer inflation. The data suggests that despite recent monetary tightening, supply-side constraints and commodity price volatility continue to push producer costs higher. As economist Sarah Thompson explains, “The 1.00% jump in Australia’s Producer Price Index QoQ underscores persistent inflation risks that may keep the RBA cautious on rate cuts for the foreseeable future.” Market reaction was swift, with the Australian dollar strengthening and bond yields edging higher following the release.
The Q3 2025 PPI print of 1.00% QoQ marks a clear acceleration from 0.70% in Q2 and exceeds the 12-month average quarterly rise of 0.65%. This uptick reflects broad-based cost pressures across energy, manufacturing, and food sectors.
Compared to historical data, this is the strongest quarterly increase since Q2 2024’s 1.05%, and well above the subdued 0.10%-0.30% quarterly gains seen in 2013. The data suggests a reacceleration of upstream inflation after a brief moderation in mid-2025.