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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Producer Price Index YoY fell to 3.0% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Australia Producer Price Index YoY fell to 3.0% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 0.5% from December's 3.5% reading. The reading missed the 4.1% consensus by 1.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.53%. Producer Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
4.1
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 3.3
Actual: 3.5
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Producer Price Index YoY (Australia) was reported at 3% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.1% by 1.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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Producer Price Index YoY - AU
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About Producer Price Index YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
Australia's Producer Price Index YoY came in at 3.000000% for April, missing the 4.100000% estimate. This marks a decline from March's 3.500000%, indicating a slowdown in producer price inflation. The softer reading may influence market expectations ahead of upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia policy decisions. Updated 5/1/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 4.1 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 3.5 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.