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Data from Reserve Bank of Australia. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY climbed to 2.8% in July 2025
Reserve Bank of AustraliaMonthlyReleased October 2025
Australia RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY climbed to 2.8% in July 2025, released October 2025, up 0.1% from June's 2.7% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.43%.
Latest Release
2.8
Actual
2.7
Consensus
2.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 2.7
Actual: 2.8
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY (Australia) was reported at 2.8% in October 2025. This beat the market consensus of 2.7% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 2.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.83%, down from the prior three at 3.77%. In October readings over the past 3 years, RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY has averaged 3.93%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 16) and RBA Rate Statement (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY - AU
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About RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY — Australia
DEFINITION
The RBA Weighted Median CPI YoY is a key financial indicator used by the Reserve Bank of Australia to measure the annual change in the weighted median consumer price index. This index reflects the price changes of a basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households, providing insight into the overall inflationary pressures in the economy. It is a crucial tool for the RBA in making monetary policy decisions and assessing the health of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2025): actual 2.8 %, consensus 2.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2025): 2.7 %. Before that (Jan 2025): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.55) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.