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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.5% in July 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased August 2026
Australia Unemployment Rate climbed to 4.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.1% from June's 4.4% reading. The reading matched expectations. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 4.27%. Unemployment Rate is now the highest in 39 months.
Latest Release
4.5
Actual
4.4
Consensus
4.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 4.4
Actual: 4.5
Error: -0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.87 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.54 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Australia) was reported at 4.5% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.4% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.34%, ranging from 4.1% to 4.5% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.43%, up from the prior three at 4.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.14%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.1%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 4.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/NZD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Sep 18) and RBA Hunter Speech (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - AU
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About Unemployment Rate — Australia
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 4.5 %, consensus 4.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.87) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | AU | Westpac Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Low | |
| 01:00 | AU | Leading Index MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |