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Data from Australian Bureau of Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
AustraliaAustralia Unemployment Rate held to 4.7% in September 2026
Australian Bureau of StatisticsMonthlyReleased October 2026
Australia Unemployment Rate held to 4.7% in September 2026, released October 2026. The reading matched expectations. Unemployment Rate has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Unemployment Rate is now the highest in 39 months.
Latest Release
4.7
Actual
4.6
Consensus
4.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.65
Actual: 4.7
Error: -0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/NZD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Australia) was reported at 4.7% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.6% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.41%, ranging from 4.1% to 4.7% across 8 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.6%, up from the prior three at 4.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.14%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Unemployment Rate has averaged 4.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 19, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC AUD speculative net positions (Oct 30) and Building Permits MoM (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - AU
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About Unemployment Rate — Australia
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 4.7 %, consensus 4.6 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 4.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.73) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - AU Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | AU | Import Prices QoQ | -1.1 | 5.7 | 1.3 | 0.10 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Export Prices QoQ | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.35 | Low |
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit YoY | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.32 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Housing Credit MoM | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.43 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Private Sector Credit MoM | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.57 | Low |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index QoQ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1 | 1.27 | Medium |
| 00:30 | AU | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 4.55 | Low |