WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index for Australia: November 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
The WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index surged to 103.80 in November 2025, well above expectations and the prior month’s 92.10. This marks the highest reading since August 2025, signaling renewed optimism among Australian consumers. Key drivers include improved labor market sentiment and easing inflation concerns. Monetary policy remains cautious amid mixed inflation signals, while fiscal stimulus and external geopolitical risks continue to shape the outlook. Financial markets responded positively, with the AUD strengthening and bond yields rising. Structural trends suggest a cautiously bullish medium-term outlook, tempered by global uncertainties.
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The latest WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index for Australia, released on November 10, 2025, recorded a robust 103.80, significantly surpassing the market estimate of 94.70 and the previous month’s 92.10. This jump reflects a 12.70-point month-on-month (MoM) increase and a 7.30-point rise compared to the 12-month average of 96.50. The index’s rebound to above 100 signals a shift from cautious to optimistic consumer sentiment, a critical driver for domestic demand and economic growth.
Drivers this month
- Labor market optimism improved, with unemployment expectations easing.
- Inflation concerns moderated, supporting real income expectations.
- Housing market sentiment stabilized after months of uncertainty.
- Government stimulus measures bolstered consumer spending confidence.
Policy pulse
The reading sits comfortably above the neutral 100 mark, suggesting consumers expect stable prices and income growth. This contrasts with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious stance amid inflation hovering near 3.50%, slightly above the 2–3% target band. The RBA’s recent pause in rate hikes aligns with this confidence uptick, though forward guidance remains data-dependent.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) appreciated by 0.40% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 8 basis points, reflecting increased expectations for sustained economic momentum.
Consumer confidence is a leading indicator of household spending, which accounts for roughly 55% of Australia’s GDP. The November reading’s strength aligns with recent labor market data showing unemployment steady at 3.80%, near historic lows. Wage growth has accelerated modestly to 3.20% year-on-year (YoY), supporting disposable income gains. Inflation remains elevated but shows signs of peaking, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.60% YoY in October, down from 4.10% in July.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The RBA’s cash rate has held steady at 4.10% since September, reflecting a wait-and-see approach. Financial conditions have eased slightly, with mortgage rates stable and credit growth steady at 6% YoY. The improved consumer confidence suggests that monetary tightening has not yet dampened spending intentions significantly.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus measures, including targeted tax rebates and infrastructure spending, have supported household incomes and confidence. The government’s 2025 budget projects a modest deficit of 1.20% of GDP, balancing stimulus with fiscal prudence. This mix supports near-term growth without overheating risks.
Drivers this month
- Housing market sentiment contributed 0.22 points.
- Employment outlook added 0.30 points.
- Inflation expectations subtracted -0.05 points, reflecting easing concerns.
Policy pulse
The index’s rise above 100 suggests consumers anticipate stable prices and income growth, which may reduce pressure on the RBA to hike rates further. However, inflation remains above target, warranting close monitoring.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: AUD/USD climbed 0.40%, while 2-year bond yields rose 8 basis points, indicating markets price in stronger domestic demand and potential for a less dovish RBA stance.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in consumer confidence, reversing a four-month decline. The strength in November suggests consumers are regaining trust in the economy, which could translate into higher spending and support GDP growth in Q4 2025 and beyond.
Looking ahead, consumer confidence’s trajectory will hinge on inflation dynamics, labor market resilience, and external risks. The base case scenario (60% probability) envisions confidence stabilizing around 100–105, supporting steady consumption growth of 2.50–3.00% annually. This assumes inflation moderates toward the RBA’s target and fiscal stimulus continues.
Bullish scenario (20%)
- Inflation falls rapidly below 3%, boosting real incomes.
- Labor market tightens further, driving wage growth above 4%.
- Geopolitical tensions ease, improving export prospects.
- Consumer confidence rises above 110, fueling robust spending.
Bearish scenario (20%)
- Inflation remains sticky above 4%, eroding purchasing power.
- Global shocks disrupt trade and commodity prices.
- Labor market softens, pushing unemployment above 4.50%.
- Confidence falls below 90, dampening consumption and growth.
Risks and opportunities
External shocks, including geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific and volatile commodity markets, pose downside risks. Conversely, structural shifts toward digital services and green investments offer long-run growth potential. Monitoring these factors is essential for policymakers and investors.
The November 2025 WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index reading of 103.80 signals a meaningful rebound in Australian consumer sentiment. This improvement aligns with stable labor markets, easing inflation concerns, and supportive fiscal policy. Financial markets have responded positively, reflecting confidence in sustained economic momentum. However, ongoing inflation risks and external uncertainties warrant vigilance.
Structural trends suggest that while consumers are optimistic in the near term, the medium-term outlook depends on the RBA’s ability to balance inflation control with growth support. Investors should watch key indicators closely, including wage growth, inflation trajectories, and geopolitical developments.
Key Markets Likely to React to WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index
The WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index is a bellwether for Australian economic health, influencing currency, bond, equity, and commodity markets. Traders and investors closely monitor this index as a proxy for consumer spending trends and economic momentum.
- AUDUSD: The Australian dollar typically strengthens on rising confidence due to expected higher consumption and growth.
- ASX: Australian equities often rally with improved consumer sentiment, reflecting better corporate earnings prospects.
- USDAUD: The inverse currency pair reacts similarly to AUDUSD, sensitive to shifts in risk appetite.
- BTCUSD: Bitcoin’s risk-on correlation means it may respond to shifts in global sentiment influenced by Australian economic data.
- BHP: As a major Australian resource stock, BHP’s price is sensitive to domestic demand and global commodity trends linked to consumer confidence.
Insight: WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index vs. AUDUSD Since 2020
Since 2020, the WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index and AUDUSD have shown a strong positive correlation (r ≈ 0.68). Periods of rising confidence, such as mid-2023 and late 2025, coincide with AUDUSD appreciation, reflecting improved economic outlook and risk sentiment. Conversely, confidence dips in early 2024 aligned with AUDUSD weakness amid global uncertainty. This relationship underscores the index’s value as a leading indicator for currency traders.
FAQ
- What is the WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index?
- The WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index measures Australian consumers’ optimism about the economy, spending, and financial conditions.
- How does the WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index impact the Australian economy?
- It serves as a leading indicator for household spending, influencing GDP growth, monetary policy, and financial markets.
- Why is the November 2025 reading significant?
- The 103.80 reading marks a strong rebound, indicating renewed consumer optimism after months of subdued sentiment.
Takeaway: The November 2025 WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index’s sharp rise to 103.80 signals a pivotal shift toward consumer optimism, supporting Australia’s economic resilience amid inflation and global risks.
Author: Sigmanomics Editorial Team
Updated 11/13/25
AUDUSD – Australian dollar vs. US dollar, highly sensitive to consumer confidence shifts.
ASX – Australian stock index, reflects domestic economic sentiment.
USDAUD – Inverse of AUDUSD, tracks risk sentiment.
BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often moves with global risk appetite influenced by economic data.
BHP – Major Australian resource stock, linked to domestic demand and commodity cycles.
The WESTPAC Consumer Confidence Index’s November 2025 print of 103.80 marks a sharp rebound from October’s 92.10 and exceeds the 12-month average of 96.50. This reversal follows a three-month period of subdued readings, including a low of 90.10 in April 2025. The upward trend reflects improving consumer sentiment amid easing inflation pressures and stable labor market conditions.
Comparing the current print to historical data, the index is now at its highest since August 2025’s 98.50, signaling a notable shift in consumer optimism. This momentum is critical for sustaining consumption growth in the face of global uncertainties.