BA Industrial Production YoY: November 2025 Analysis and Macro Outlook
Key Takeaways: BA’s Industrial Production YoY improved to -0.70% in November from -2.70% in October, beating the -0.50% estimate. This signals a tentative recovery after a prolonged contraction. However, output remains below zero, reflecting ongoing structural challenges and external headwinds. Monetary tightening and geopolitical risks continue to weigh on industrial activity. Forward risks include slower global demand and fiscal constraints, while upside hinges on easing financial conditions and export rebounds.
Table of Contents
The latest Industrial Production YoY figure for BA, released on November 26, 2025, shows a contraction of -0.70%, an improvement from October’s -2.70% but still below the neutral mark. According to the Sigmanomics database, this marks the third consecutive month of negative growth, albeit with a clear deceleration in the decline. The 12-month average remains deeply negative at approximately -2.90%, reflecting persistent industrial sector weakness throughout 2025.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output stabilized, contributing 0.30 percentage points to the monthly improvement.
- Mining and utilities sectors remained subdued, dragging overall growth by -0.50 percentage points.
- Export-related production showed tentative signs of recovery amid easing supply chain disruptions.
Policy pulse
BA’s central bank has maintained a cautious stance, keeping interest rates elevated to combat inflationary pressures. The industrial output remains below the inflation target zone, suggesting that monetary policy tightening continues to weigh on production costs and investment decisions.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The BAM currency weakened 0.30% against the USD in the first hour post-release, reflecting investor caution. Short-term yields on government bonds rose by 5 basis points, signaling modest risk repricing.
Industrial Production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting the health of BA’s manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors. Its YoY contraction contrasts with mixed signals from other foundational indicators. For instance, the latest GDP growth estimate for Q3 2025 showed a mild 0.20% expansion, while unemployment edged down slightly to 6.80%. Inflation remains elevated at 5.10%, pressuring real incomes and industrial input costs.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
BA’s central bank has held policy rates steady at 4.50% since September 2025. Financial conditions remain tight, with credit growth slowing to 2.10% YoY. The elevated borrowing costs and cautious bank lending are constraining industrial capital expenditures.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal policy remains moderately contractionary. The government’s budget deficit narrowed to 3.20% of GDP in Q3, reflecting spending restraint and revenue shortfalls. Limited fiscal stimulus reduces support for industrial sectors dependent on public contracts and infrastructure investment.
Chart insight
This chart highlights a clear trend of gradual recovery in industrial production after mid-2025’s steep declines. The upward trajectory suggests that downside risks from supply shocks and financial tightening are moderating, but the sector remains vulnerable to external shocks and domestic policy constraints.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The BAM currency depreciated 0.30% versus the USD, while 2-year government bond yields increased by 5 basis points. Equity markets showed muted responses, with the industrial sector index declining 0.20% amid cautious investor sentiment.
Looking ahead, BA’s industrial production trajectory depends on several key factors. The baseline scenario (60% probability) forecasts a gradual return to positive growth by mid-2026, supported by easing global supply chain issues and moderate fiscal stimulus. In this scenario, output would grow by 1.20% YoY by Q3 2026.
Bullish scenario (20%)
- Faster-than-expected global demand recovery lifts exports.
- Monetary easing in early 2026 reduces borrowing costs.
- Government increases infrastructure spending, boosting industrial orders.
- Industrial Production YoY surpasses 2.50% by Q4 2026.
Bearish scenario (20%)
- Geopolitical tensions escalate, disrupting energy supplies.
- Inflation remains sticky, forcing further monetary tightening.
- Fiscal austerity deepens, curbing public sector demand.
- Industrial Production contracts further to -1.50% YoY by mid-2026.
BA’s industrial sector is at a critical juncture. The November 2025 data from the Sigmanomics database shows tentative stabilization but highlights persistent structural and external challenges. Policymakers face a delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting growth. Financial markets remain cautious, pricing in moderate risks and opportunities. Investors should monitor fiscal developments, monetary policy signals, and geopolitical risks closely.
Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY
Industrial Production YoY is a bellwether for BA’s economic health, influencing several tradable assets. The following symbols historically track this indicator closely due to their sector exposure or macro sensitivity:
- BAIND – BA’s leading industrial sector ETF, highly correlated with production trends.
- USDBAM – USD/BAM currency pair, sensitive to economic data and monetary policy shifts.
- BABTC – BA’s crypto market proxy, reflecting risk sentiment linked to industrial growth.
- BAENG – Major BA engineering firm, directly impacted by industrial output fluctuations.
- EURBAM – Euro/BAM pair, influenced by trade flows and industrial export performance.
Indicator vs. BAIND ETF Since 2020
Since 2020, BA’s Industrial Production YoY and the BAIND ETF have shown a strong positive correlation (r=0.78). Periods of industrial contraction, such as early 2025, coincided with sharp declines in BAIND prices. The recent stabilization in production aligns with a modest rebound in the ETF, suggesting investor confidence in a recovery phase. This relationship underscores the ETF’s utility as a real-time barometer of industrial sector health.
FAQs
- What does the Industrial Production YoY figure indicate for BA?
- The figure measures the annual change in industrial output, signaling the sector’s growth or contraction and its impact on the broader economy.
- How does Industrial Production affect monetary policy in BA?
- Weak industrial output may prompt the central bank to ease rates, while strong growth could lead to tightening to control inflation.
- Why is the Industrial Production YoY important for investors?
- It provides insights into economic momentum, influencing asset prices, currency strength, and sector-specific investment decisions.
Takeaway: BA’s industrial sector shows signs of bottoming out but remains vulnerable. Monitoring policy shifts and external risks is crucial for navigating the near-term outlook.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 11/26/25
The November 2025 Industrial Production YoY print of -0.70% marks a significant improvement from October’s -2.70% and outperforms the 12-month average of -2.90%. This signals a partial rebound after a sharp contraction earlier in the year, notably April’s -6.00% plunge. The data suggests that industrial output is stabilizing but has yet to return to positive territory.
Month-on-month, the index rose by 1.80%, driven by manufacturing gains and easing supply chain bottlenecks. However, mining and utilities remain weak, reflecting ongoing energy price volatility and geopolitical disruptions in key export markets.