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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BelgiumBelgium Construction Output YoY fell to -4.8% in November 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2026
Belgium Construction Output YoY fell to -4.8% in November 2025, released January 2026, down 4.3% from October's -0.5% reading. The reading missed the -0.3% consensus by 4.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.06%. Over the past 3 months, Construction Output YoY averaged -1.77%, vs 3.03% in the prior 3-month window. Construction Output YoY is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
-4.8
Actual
-0.3
Consensus
-0.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.94 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: -1.2
Actual: -4.8
Error: +3.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Construction Output YoY (Belgium) was reported at -4.8% in January 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.3% by 4.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.53%, ranging from -4.8% to 6.7% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -3.37%, down from the prior three at 2.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.91%) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.72%). In January readings over the past 3 years, Construction Output YoY has averaged -1.98%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.94%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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Construction Output YoY - BE
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About Construction Output YoY — Belgium
DEFINITION
Construction Output YoY (Year-over-Year) is a financial indicator that measures the change in the total value of construction projects completed in a given period compared to the same period in the previous year. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of the construction industry and can be used to assess the overall health of the economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts to make informed decisions about the construction sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2025): actual -4.8 %, consensus -0.3 %. Prior reading (Nov 2025): -4.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): -0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.