The latest Current Account data for Belgium (BE), released on October 3, 2025, reveals a significant deterioration in external balances. According to the Sigmanomics database, the current account deficit widened to €-4.49 billion, well below the consensus estimate of €-1.70 billion and a stark reversal from the previous surplus of €955 million recorded in September 2025.

Drivers this month

• Import costs surged due to higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions.
• Export volumes stagnated amid weakening demand from key trading partners.
• Services balance deteriorated slightly, pressured by tourism and transport sectors.

Policy pulse

The current account deficit now stands at its lowest point since June 2023, when a €-3.31 billion shortfall was recorded. This signals growing external vulnerabilities that may complicate Belgium’s monetary policy stance, especially as the ECB maintains a hawkish bias to combat inflation.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The EUR/USD pair dipped 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year Belgian government bond yields rose by 12 basis points, reflecting heightened risk premiums and concerns over external financing needs.

Belgium’s current account balance is a critical macroeconomic indicator reflecting the net flow of goods, services, income, and transfers. The October 2025 print of €-4.49 billion (million EUR) marks a sharp deterioration compared to the previous reading of €955 million surplus and the 12-month average deficit of approximately €-1.50 billion.

Historical comparisons

• March 2024 saw a surplus of €2.22 billion, highlighting the volatility in Belgium’s external position.
• The deficit of €-4.49 billion is the largest since the €-3.31 billion recorded in June 2023.
• Compared to the 2024 average, the current deficit is nearly three times larger, underscoring recent pressures.

Monetary policy & financial conditions

Rising deficits amid tightening ECB policy create a challenging environment. Higher interest rates increase debt servicing costs, while a weaker euro may boost exports but also inflate import prices, exacerbating the deficit.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Belgium’s fiscal stance remains cautious, with limited room for stimulus. The government’s budget constraints may limit counter-cyclical measures to offset external imbalances, increasing reliance on structural reforms.

Imports rose sharply due to elevated energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks, while exports failed to keep pace amid slowing global demand. The services balance also weakened, reflecting lower tourism receipts and transport activity. Income flows remained broadly stable but insufficient to offset trade imbalances.

Market lens

Immediate reaction: EUR/USD declined 0.30%, while Belgian 2-year yields rose 12 basis points, reflecting investor concerns over external imbalances and funding risks.

Looking ahead, Belgium faces a complex macroeconomic environment shaped by external and domestic factors. The current account deficit’s sharp widening raises questions about sustainability and policy responses.

Bullish scenario (20% probability)

• Global demand recovers, boosting exports and narrowing the deficit.
• Energy prices stabilize or decline, easing import cost pressures.
• Monetary policy remains accommodative, supporting growth and external balances.

Base scenario (55% probability)

• Current account deficit remains elevated but stabilizes around €-3 billion.
• Moderate export growth offsets some import cost increases.
• ECB maintains gradual rate hikes, balancing inflation and growth risks.

Bearish scenario (25% probability)

• Prolonged global slowdown depresses exports further.
• Energy and commodity prices surge, worsening import bills.
• Fiscal constraints limit policy flexibility, exacerbating external imbalances.

Structural & long-run trends

Belgium’s external position is influenced by its open economy and integration in European supply chains. Long-term challenges include energy transition costs, demographic shifts, and evolving trade patterns. Addressing these will require coordinated fiscal and structural reforms.

The October 2025 current account deficit signals a notable shift in Belgium’s external economic landscape. The magnitude of the shortfall highlights vulnerabilities amid global uncertainties and domestic policy constraints. While short-term volatility may persist, the data underscores the importance of strategic policy responses to safeguard external stability.

Monetary tightening, fiscal prudence, and structural reforms will be key to managing risks. Market participants should monitor upcoming data releases and geopolitical developments closely, as these will shape Belgium’s macroeconomic trajectory in the near term.

Key Markets Likely to React to Current Account

Belgium’s current account data typically influences currency, bond, and equity markets sensitive to external trade and financing conditions. The recent sharp deficit expansion is likely to impact the euro, government bond yields, and export-oriented stocks. Monitoring these markets provides insight into investor sentiment and risk appetite.

• EURUSD – The primary currency pair reflecting euro strength, sensitive to Belgium’s external balance shifts.
• BE – Belgium’s equity index, impacted by trade and economic growth outlooks.
• ABN – A major Belgian bank, sensitive to credit conditions and external financing risks.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin’s price often reflects risk sentiment shifts linked to macroeconomic uncertainty.
• USDEUR – The inverse of EURUSD, useful for cross-checking currency moves post-data.

Extras: Current Account vs. EURUSD Since 2020

Since 2020, Belgium’s current account balance and EURUSD have shown a moderate inverse correlation. Periods of widening deficits often coincide with euro depreciation against the dollar, reflecting external financing pressures. For example, the June 2023 deficit spike to €-3.31 billion corresponded with a 4% euro decline over three months. This relationship underscores the currency’s sensitivity to Belgium’s external trade dynamics.

FAQ

What does Belgium’s current account deficit indicate?

The current account deficit shows Belgium is importing more goods, services, and capital than it exports, signaling external financing needs and potential vulnerabilities.

How does the current account affect Belgium’s economy?

A large deficit can pressure the currency, increase borrowing costs, and constrain growth if sustained, while a surplus generally supports economic stability.

Why is the current account important for investors?

Investors use the current account to gauge external risks, currency trends, and macroeconomic health, influencing asset allocation and risk management.

Final takeaway: Belgium’s sharply widening current account deficit in October 2025 signals growing external vulnerabilities amid global uncertainties. Policymakers and markets must navigate this challenging environment carefully to maintain macroeconomic stability.

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.

Last updated: Aug 29, 2025