Belgium Industrial Production MoM: November 2025 Report and Macro Outlook
Table of Contents
Belgium’s industrial production (IP) declined by -0.70% month-on-month (MoM) in November 2025, according to the latest data from the Sigmanomics database. This follows a sharper contraction of -1.40% in October and compares to a consensus estimate of -0.80%. The November reading marks the third consecutive monthly decline, though the pace of contraction has slowed, signaling tentative stabilization in the industrial sector.
Drivers this month
- Manufacturing output fell amid weaker demand from key export markets, especially Germany and France.
- Energy-intensive sectors faced cost pressures from elevated electricity prices, dampening production.
- Supply chain bottlenecks eased slightly but still constrained some capital goods manufacturing.
Policy pulse
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious stance on interest rates continues to weigh on industrial credit availability. Inflation remains above target at 3.20% YoY, limiting scope for monetary easing. Belgium’s government budget remains tight, with limited fiscal stimulus to offset external shocks.
Market lens
Following the release, the EUR/EURUSD currency pair weakened marginally by 0.15%, reflecting concerns over Belgium’s export outlook. Short-term yields on Belgian government bonds rose 5 basis points, signaling cautious investor sentiment.
Industrial production is a core macroeconomic indicator reflecting the health of Belgium’s manufacturing and mining sectors. The November 2025 decline contrasts with a 12-month average monthly growth rate of 1.20% since November 2024, underscoring recent softness.
Historical comparisons
- November’s -0.70% MoM drop is less severe than July 2025’s -2.80%, the largest contraction in the past year.
- The April 2025 surge of 7.40% MoM was driven by post-pandemic restocking and export rebounds, a stark contrast to current trends.
- October’s -1.40% decline was the sharpest monthly fall since the energy crisis peak in late 2024.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The ECB’s key refinancing rate remains at 3.75%, unchanged since September 2025. Financial conditions have tightened due to higher yields and cautious bank lending. Credit growth to industry slowed to 1.10% YoY in October, down from 2.30% six months prior.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Belgium’s fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.80% of GDP in Q3 2025, limiting room for expansionary measures. Government investment in infrastructure and green energy projects continues but at a measured pace.
This chart signals Belgium’s industrial sector is stabilizing after sharp declines but remains vulnerable to external shocks. The trend suggests cautious optimism but no clear recovery yet.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/USD dipped 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting concerns about Belgium’s export-driven industrial slowdown. Belgian 10-year bond yields rose 5 basis points, indicating increased risk premiums.
Looking ahead, Belgium’s industrial production faces a mix of risks and opportunities. The base case scenario projects modest stabilization with quarterly growth near zero to 0.30% in Q1 2026, supported by easing supply constraints and gradual demand recovery.
Scenario analysis
- Bullish (20% probability): Stronger EU-wide demand and easing energy prices drive a rebound, lifting IP growth to 1.50% MoM by mid-2026.
- Base (60% probability): Continued moderate contraction or flat growth as inflation pressures and geopolitical risks persist, with IP hovering around -0.20% to 0.30% MoM.
- Bearish (20% probability): Renewed supply chain disruptions or energy shocks deepen contraction to -1.00% MoM or worse, prolonging industrial weakness.
External shocks & geopolitical risks
Ongoing tensions in Eastern Europe and trade uncertainties with China remain key downside risks. Energy price volatility tied to geopolitical events could further pressure energy-intensive industries.
Structural & long-run trends
Belgium’s industrial sector is gradually shifting toward high-tech and green manufacturing. Investments in automation and sustainability may support medium-term growth despite near-term challenges.
Belgium’s November 2025 industrial production data reveals a sector under pressure but showing signs of stabilization. The slowdown reflects a complex interplay of tighter financial conditions, subdued external demand, and energy cost pressures. While the near-term outlook remains cautious, structural shifts toward innovation and sustainability offer a positive long-run trajectory.
Policymakers face the challenge of balancing inflation control with support for industrial recovery. Market participants should monitor energy prices, ECB policy signals, and geopolitical developments closely, as these will shape Belgium’s industrial momentum in 2026.
Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production MoM
Belgium’s industrial production data typically influences equity, currency, and bond markets sensitive to economic growth and export dynamics. Key symbols to watch include:
- ABN – Dutch bank with exposure to Belgian industrial credit conditions.
- EUREUR – Euro currency pairs reflecting regional economic sentiment.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin as a risk sentiment proxy amid macro uncertainty.
- UMI – Belgian industrial conglomerate sensitive to production trends.
- EURUSD – Key currency pair reacting to Eurozone industrial data.
FAQ
- What does Belgium’s Industrial Production MoM indicate?
- It measures monthly changes in Belgium’s manufacturing and mining output, signaling economic health and industrial activity.
- How does the November 2025 reading compare historically?
- The -0.70% MoM decline is an improvement from October’s -1.40% but remains below the 12-month average of 1.20%, indicating ongoing softness.
- What are the main risks affecting Belgium’s industrial production?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, energy price volatility, supply chain disruptions, and tighter monetary policy limiting credit.
Takeaway: Belgium’s industrial production is stabilizing after recent declines but remains vulnerable to external shocks and financial tightening. Close monitoring of policy and market signals is essential for anticipating the sector’s trajectory in 2026.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 industrial production MoM reading of -0.70% shows improvement from October’s -1.40%, yet remains below the 12-month average of 1.20%. This suggests a moderating contraction rather than a full rebound. The chart below illustrates the monthly fluctuations over the past year, highlighting volatility linked to external shocks and energy price swings.
Compared to the April 2025 peak (7.40%), the current trend reflects subdued demand and cautious business sentiment. The easing from July’s steep -2.80% drop indicates some resilience despite ongoing headwinds.