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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Interest Rate Decision climbed to 1.81% in December 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased December 2025
Bulgaria Interest Rate Decision climbed to 1.81% in December 2025, up 0.01% from November's 1.8% reading. The reading matched the 1.79% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.3%. Over the past 3 months, Interest Rate Decision averaged 1.81%, vs 1.82% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 9th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.81
Actual
1.79
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Dec 2025
Predicted: 1.79
Actual: 1.81
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.89 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Bearish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Bulgaria) was reported at 1.81% in December 2025. This beat the market consensus of 1.79% by 0.02%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through December 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.81%, down from the prior three at 1.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update December 2025.
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Interest Rate Decision - BG
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About Interest Rate Decision — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2025): actual 1.81 %, consensus 1.79 %. Prior reading (Nov 2025): 1.8 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 1.81 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.89) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.