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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BahrainBahrain GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 4.6% in October 2025
FMPQuarterlyReleased April 2026
Bahrain GDP Growth Rate YoY climbed to 4.6% in October 2025, released April 2026, up 0.6% from September's 4.0% reading. The print exceeded the 3.5% consensus by 1.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 2.69%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the highest in 24 months.
Latest Release
4.6
Actual
3.5
Consensus
4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: 3.05
Actual: 2.5
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Bahrain) was reported at 4.6% in April 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.5% by 1.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 2.87%, up from the prior three at 2.23%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - BH
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Bahrain
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2025): actual 4.6 %, consensus 3.5 %. Prior reading (Apr 2025): 2.5 %. Before that (Jan 2025): 2.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.