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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Interest Rate Decision fell to 13.75% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Brazil Interest Rate Decision fell to 13.75% in September 2026, down 0.25% from August's 14.0% reading. The reading matched the 13.75% consensus. Interest Rate Decision has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
13.75
Actual
13.75
Consensus
14
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 13.75
Actual: 13.75
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.77 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Brazil) was reported at 13.75% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 13.75% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 14%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.54%, ranging from 13.75% to 15% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 14%, down from the prior three at 14.92%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.49%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.35%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Interest Rate Decision has averaged 13.17%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - BR
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About Interest Rate Decision — Brazil
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 13.75 %, consensus 13.75 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 14 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 14.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.77) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 44.8 | 43 | 41.90 | Low | |
| Wednesday, November 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.51 | 0.7 | 0.48 | Low | |
| 17:30 | BR | Net Payrolls | 165.83 | 180 | 180.00 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 13.75 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |