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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Interest Rate Decision fell to 14.25% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Brazil Interest Rate Decision fell to 14.25% in June 2026, down 0.25% from May's 14.5% reading. The reading matched the 14.25% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.75%. Over the past 3 months, Interest Rate Decision averaged 14.38%, vs 14.88% in the prior 3-month window. Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
14.25
Actual
14.25
Consensus
14.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 14.25
Actual: 14.25
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.75 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.60 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Brazil) was reported at 14.25% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 14.25% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 14.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 14.86%, ranging from 14.25% to 15% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 14.67%, down from the prior three at 15%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.26%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.7%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, negatively correlated (Bearish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - BR
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About Interest Rate Decision — Brazil
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 14.25 %, consensus 14.25 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 14.25 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 14.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.75) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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