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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Trade Balance fell to 2.99B in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2025
Brazil Trade Balance fell to 2.99B in September 2025, released October 2025, down 2.87B from August's 5.86B reading. The print exceeded the 2.65B consensus by 0.34B. Trade Balance has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Trade Balance is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
2.99
Actual
2.65
Consensus
5.86
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±292.72 billion
across last 6 releases
Last Call
Oct 2025
Predicted: -59.69
Actual: 2.99
Error: -62.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.93 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (Brazil) was reported at 2.99 billion in October 2025. This beat the market consensus of 2.65 billion by 0.34 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.86 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4,899.11 Millions USD, ranging from 2.99 Millions USD to 9,707.40 Millions USD across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 8,496.17 Millions USD, up from the prior three at 5,001.20 Millions USD. Volatility over the past year (σ 3,250.52 Millions USD) is higher than the prior year (σ 2,901.61 Millions USD). In June readings over the past 3 years, Brazil Trade Balance has averaged 4,936.41 Millions USD.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 292.72 Millions USD.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Trade Balance - BR
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About Trade Balance — Brazil
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual 2.99 Millions USD, consensus 2.65 Millions USD. Prior reading (Aug 2025): 6.13 Millions USD. Before that (Jul 2025): 7.08 Millions USD.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.93) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.8 | 49.7 | 51.25 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | BR | IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM | 0.18 | 0.4 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production MoM | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Industrial Production YoY | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.80 | Low | |
| Wednesday, August 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 50.8 | 50.80 | Medium | |
| 13:00 | BR | S&P Global Composite PMI | 50.7 | 49.8 | 49.80 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14.25 | 14.25 | 14.25 | Medium | |
| Thursday, August 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 18:00 | BR | Balance of Trade | 9.76 | 9.9 | 9.90 | Medium | |