Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Balance of Trade climbed to 4.24B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada Balance of Trade climbed to 4.24B in May 2026, released July 2026, up 0.83B from April's 3.41B reading. The print exceeded the 2.9B consensus by 1.34B. Balance of Trade has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 2.25B, vs -2.82B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 38 months.
Latest Release
4.24
Actual
2.9
Consensus
3.41
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.59 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 2.96
Actual: 4.24
Error: -1.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.87 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Canada) was reported at 4.24 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.90 billion by 1.34 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.41 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.13 billion, ranging from -6.32 billion to 4.24 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.41 billion, up from the prior three at -1.85 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.56 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 2.53 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.59 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoC Interest Rate Decision (Jul 15) and BoC Monetary Policy Report (Jul 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - CA
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — Canada
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.24 M, consensus 2.9 M. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.72 M. Before that (Mar 2026): 1.78 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.87) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.6 | 80.5 | 80.50 | Low | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 261.4 | 220 | 220.00 | Medium | |