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Data from Bank of Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada BoC Interest Rate Decision held to 2.25% in September 2026
Bank of CanadaMonthlyReleased September 2026
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision held to 2.25% in September 2026. The reading matched the 2.25% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.5%. BoC Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 50 months.
Latest Release
2.25
Actual
2.25
Consensus
2.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 2.25
Actual: 2.25
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
BoC Interest Rate Decision (Canada) was reported at 2.25% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.25% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.29%, ranging from 2.25% to 2.5% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.25%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.09%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.35%). In September readings over the past 3 years, BoC Interest Rate Decision has averaged 3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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BoC Interest Rate Decision - CA
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About BoC Interest Rate Decision — Canada
DEFINITION
The BoC Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the Bank of Canada's decision on whether to raise, lower, or maintain the target for the overnight interest rate. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects borrowing costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor this indicator as it provides insight into the central bank's monetary policy and can influence market trends and investment decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 2.25 %, consensus 2.25 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 2.25 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 2.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |