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Data from Bank of Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada BoC Interest Rate Decision held to 2.25% in June 2026
Bank of CanadaMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision held to 2.25% in June 2026. The reading matched the 2.25% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.58%. BoC Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 47 months.
Latest Release
2.25
Actual
2.25
Consensus
2.25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2.25
Actual: 2.25
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
BoC Interest Rate Decision (Canada) was reported at 2.25% in June 2026. This matched the market consensus of 2.25% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 2.36%, ranging from 2.25% to 2.75% across 7 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 2.25%, down from the prior three at 2.33%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.66%). In June readings over the past 3 years, BoC Interest Rate Decision has averaged 3.25%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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BoC Interest Rate Decision - CA
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About BoC Interest Rate Decision — Canada
DEFINITION
The BoC Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the Bank of Canada's decision on whether to raise, lower, or maintain the target for the overnight interest rate. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects borrowing costs, inflation, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor this indicator as it provides insight into the central bank's monetary policy and can influence market trends and investment decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 2.25 %, consensus 2.25 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.25 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.25 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.