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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada New Motor Vehicle Sales fell to 174.6K in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales fell to 174.6K in August 2026, released October 2026, down 1.6K from July's 176.2K reading. The print exceeded the 161K consensus by 13.6K. New Motor Vehicle Sales has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, New Motor Vehicle Sales averaged 183.2K, vs 180.2K in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 59th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
174.6
Actual
161
Consensus
176.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±14.7 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 205.2
Actual: 176.2
Error: +29
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Motor Vehicle Sales (Canada) was reported at 175 thousand in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 161 thousand by 14 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 176 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 161 thousand, ranging from 114 thousand to 190 thousand across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 183 thousand, up from the prior three at 139 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 24 thousand) is comparable than the prior year (σ 23 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, New Motor Vehicle Sales has averaged 175 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 15 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoC Gov Macklem Speech (Oct 16) and Housing Starts (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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New Motor Vehicle Sales - CA
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About New Motor Vehicle Sales — Canada
DEFINITION
New Motor Vehicle Sales is a key financial indicator that measures the total number of new cars, trucks, and other motor vehicles sold by dealerships and manufacturers. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, investors, and businesses as it provides valuable insights into consumer spending, economic growth, and the overall health of the automotive industry. Changes in new motor vehicle sales can also impact other sectors, such as manufacturing and retail, making it a crucial metric for assessing the state of the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 174.6 K, consensus 161 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 176.2 K. Before that (Jun 2026): 190.2 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish USD, r=0.70) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 81.9 | 80.7 | 81 | 81.45 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 174.6 | 176.2 | 161 | 167.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -1.6 | 0.3 | -1.5 | -1.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 1.5 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 1.30 | Low |
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | CA | CFIB Business Barometer | 47.9 | 47 | 51.20 | Low | |
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229 | 232.5 | 232.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Foreign Securities Purchases | 20.65 | 23.59 | 19.93 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | High | |
| Monday, October 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 2 | 1.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | High | |