Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Participation Rate fell to 64.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Participation Rate fell to 64.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.2% from August's 65.0% reading. The reading matched the 65.3% consensus. Participation Rate has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Participation Rate averaged 65.05%, vs 65.0% in the prior 3-month window. Participation Rate is now the lowest in 37 months.
Latest Release
64.8
Actual
65.3
Consensus
65
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 65.25
Actual: 64.8
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Participation Rate (Canada) was reported at 64.8% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 65.3% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 65%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 65.03%, ranging from 64.8% to 65.4% across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 64.97%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.16%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.17%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Participation Rate has averaged 64.97%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with CAD/JPY (Bearish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Gross Domestic Product MoM (Oct 30) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Participation Rate - CA
Loading chart data...
About Participation Rate — Canada
DEFINITION
The participation rate is a financial indicator that measures the percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the level of labor force participation in an economy and can provide insights into the overall health and strength of the job market. A higher participation rate is generally seen as a positive sign of a robust economy, while a lower rate may indicate a weaker job market. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers to inform decisions related to employment and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 64.8 %, consensus 65.3 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 65 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 65.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Average Weekly Earnings | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.45 | Low |