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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada PMI climbed to 55.8 in July 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2025
Canada PMI climbed to 55.8 in July 2025, released August 2025, up 2.5 from June's 53.3 reading. The reading matched the 55.2 consensus. PMI has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, PMI averaged 51.75, vs 52.68 in the prior 3-month window. PMI is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
55.8
Actual
55.2
Consensus
53.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.25
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Aug 2025
Predicted: 55.5
Actual: 55.8
Error: -0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.91 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
PMI (Canada) was reported at 56.30 in March 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 47.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 51.64, ranging from 43.30 to 61.60 across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 48.87, down from the prior three at 52.03.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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PMI - CA
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About PMI — Canada
DEFINITION
PMI, or Purchasing Managers' Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the health of a country's manufacturing sector. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, and provides valuable insights into the overall economic activity and future trends. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can help inform decisions related to investments, production, and economic policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 56.3. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 56.3. Before that (Jan 2026): 50.9.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/CAD (Bearish AUD, r=-0.91) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.