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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Retail Sales MoM fell to -0.8% in July 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased August 2026
Canada Retail Sales MoM fell to -0.8% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1.8% from June's 1.0% reading. The reading missed the -0.5% consensus by 0.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.63%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 0.75%, vs 0.83% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales MoM is now the lowest in 13 months.
Latest Release
-0.8
Actual
-0.5
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.43 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.53
Actual: -0.8
Error: +0.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Canada) was reported at -0.8% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.5% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.3%, ranging from -0.8% to 1.5% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.23%, down from the prior three at 1.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.89%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.94%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 0.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P/TSX Composite (Bullish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.43%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Housing Starts (Sep 16) and New Housing Price Index MoM (Sep 23).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - CA
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About Retail Sales MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/TSX Composite (Bullish S&P, r=0.52) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.15 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.65 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 80.7 | 82.2 | 82.4 | 81.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | High |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.35 | Medium |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.32 | Low |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 190.2 | 190.1 | 190.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -0.6 | 2.8 | -0.6 | -0.47 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229.1 | 237.5 | 240.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 18.5 | -5.8 | -5.80 | Low | |