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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Retail Sales MoM fell to 0.5% in May 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased June 2026
Canada Retail Sales MoM fell to 0.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, down 0.4% from April's 0.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.6% consensus by 0.1%. Year-over-year, the indicator is up 1.6%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 0.8%, vs 1.2% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales MoM is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.6
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.59 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.75
Actual: 0.5
Error: +0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Canada) was reported at 0.5% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.6% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.59%, ranging from -0.8% to 1.6% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, up from the prior three at 0.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.92%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.98%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged 0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P/TSX Composite (Bullish S&P). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.59%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 20) and Core Inflation Rate YoY (Jul 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - CA
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About Retail Sales MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.6 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P/TSX Composite (Bullish S&P, r=0.50) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Monday, July 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | 1 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | CPI YoY | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.2 | 3 | 2.95 | High | |
| Thursday, July 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | New Housing Price Index MoM | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Retail Sales MoM | 1 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |