Loading page content
Loading page content
Canada Trade Balance fell to -6.32B in August 2025, released October 2025, down 2.5B from July's -3.82B reading. The reading missed the -5.7B consensus by 0.62B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -1.42B. Over the past 3 months, Trade Balance averaged -5.4B, vs -3.82B in the prior 3-month window.
across last 8 releases
Oct 2025
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
Trade Balance (Canada) was reported at -6.32 billion in October 2025. This missed the market consensus of -5.70 billion by 0.62 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of -3.82 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
The trailing three releases averaged -5.71 billion, down from the prior three at -3.06 billion.
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.17 billion.
Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Housing Price Index MoM (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
Latest reading (Aug 2025): actual -6.32 B, consensus -5.7 B. Prior reading (Jul 2025): -4.94 B. Before that (Jun 2025): -5.86 B.
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
| Monday, June 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 | Housing Starts | 261.4 | 278.4 | 255.1 | 256.27 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | Wholesale Sales MoM | 0.6 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 4.2 | 3 | 4.5 | 4.35 | Low | |
| Tuesday, June 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | Foreign Securities Purchases | 4.62 | 11.28 | 32.28 | Low | ||
| Wednesday, June 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | New Housing Price Index MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium | ||