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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChileChile Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -0.5% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Chile Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to -0.5% in January 2026, released May 2026, down 2.1% from December's 1.6% reading. The reading missed the 0.1% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 2.52%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 14 months.
Latest Release
-0.5
Actual
0.1
Consensus
1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 6 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.05
Actual: -0.5
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (Chile) was reported at -0.5% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.1% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.9%, down from the prior three at 3.13%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 6 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.25%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - CL
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — Chile
DEFINITION
Chile's Gross Domestic Product YoY contracted by -0.500000% in May 2026, missing the 0.100000% estimate and reversing from April's 1.600000% growth. This marks a significant downturn from the previous month’s expansion, indicating a sharp economic slowdown. Market focus will shift to upcoming policy decisions as the central bank assesses this unexpected contraction. Updated 5/18/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jan 2026): actual -0.5 %, consensus 0.1 %. Prior reading (Oct 2025): 1.6 %. Before that (Jul 2025): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.