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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Balance of Trade climbed to 119.1B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China Balance of Trade climbed to 119.1B in August 2026, released September 2026, up 6.6B from July's 112.5B reading. The reading matched the 119.1B consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 269.27B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 119.06B, vs 80.46B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 66th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
119.1
Actual
119.1
Consensus
112.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.42 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 121.63
Actual: 119.1
Error: +2.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (China) was reported at 119.10 billion in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 119.10 billion exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 112.50 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 305.41 billion, ranging from 90.45 billion to 808.80 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 119.07 billion, down from the prior three at 460.18 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 279.29 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 21.76 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 104.15 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, negatively correlated (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.42 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CN
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About Balance of Trade — China
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 119.1 B, consensus 119.1 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 112.5 B. Before that (Jun 2026): 125.8 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish USD, r=0.47) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |