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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Balance of Trade climbed to 133.53B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China Balance of Trade climbed to 133.53B in September 2026, released October 2026, up 14.44B from August's 119.09B reading. The print exceeded the 118.1B consensus by 15.43B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 157.45B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 121.71B, vs 105.29B in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
133.53
Actual
118.1
Consensus
119.09
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±11.28 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 119.48
Actual: 133.53
Error: -14.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (China) was reported at 133.53 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 118.10 billion by 15.43 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 119.09 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 310.20 billion, ranging from 105.43 billion to 808.80 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 121.71 billion, down from the prior three at 289.53 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 275.91 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 21.00 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 101.90 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, negatively correlated (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 11.28 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CN
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About Balance of Trade — China
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 133.5 B, consensus 118.1 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 119.1 B. Before that (Jul 2026): 112.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish USD, r=0.49) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | 51.30 | High | |