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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Balance of Trade climbed to 105.43B in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China Balance of Trade climbed to 105.43B in May 2026, released June 2026, up 20.63B from April's 84.8B reading. The print exceeded the 92.1B consensus by 13.33B. Balance of Trade has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 67.98B, vs 385.57B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
105.43
Actual
92.1
Consensus
84.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±10.41 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 92.1
Actual: 105.43
Error: -13.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | INDEX | Bearish Hang Seng | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (China) was reported at 105.43 billion in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 92.10 billion by 13.33 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 84.80 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 300.76 billion, ranging from 90.45 billion to 808.80 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 460.18 billion, up from the prior three at 336.98 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 282.46 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 22.65 billion). In June readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 97.09 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 10.41 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CN
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About Balance of Trade — China
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 105.4 B, consensus 92.1 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 84.82 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 51.13 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish USD, r=0.47) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.