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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Balance of Trade climbed to 125.62B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China Balance of Trade climbed to 125.62B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 20.19B from May's 105.43B reading. The reading matched the 121B consensus. Balance of Trade has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 95.13B, vs 322.43B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 69th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
125.62
Actual
121
Consensus
105.43
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.42 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 127.67
Actual: 125.62
Error: +2.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (China) was reported at 125.62 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 121.00 billion by 4.62 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 105.43 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 301.96 billion, ranging from 90.45 billion to 808.80 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 289.53 billion, down from the prior three at 519.34 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 281.69 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 22.89 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 113.15 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, negatively correlated (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.42 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Balance of Trade - CN
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About Balance of Trade — China
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 125.8 B, consensus 121 B. Prior reading (May 2026): 105.4 B. Before that (Apr 2026): 84.82 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish USD, r=0.47) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |