Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Balance of Trade fell to 112.5B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China Balance of Trade fell to 112.5B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 13.12B from June's 125.62B reading. The print exceeded the 107B consensus by 5.5B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 260.02B. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged 115.53B, vs 304.15B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 63rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
112.5
Actual
107
Consensus
125.62
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.42 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 111.49
Actual: 112.5
Error: -1.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (China) was reported at 112.50 billion in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 107.00 billion by 5.50 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 125.62 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 303.55 billion, ranging from 90.45 billion to 808.80 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 114.52 billion, down from the prior three at 694.63 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 280.58 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 22.18 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged 98.46 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, negatively correlated (Bearish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.42 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 8, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Loans (Aug 13) and Current Account (Aug 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Balance of Trade - CN
Loading chart data...
About Balance of Trade — China
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 112.5 B, consensus 107 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 125.8 B. Before that (May 2026): 105.4 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish USD, r=0.47) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Sunday, August 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 4.05 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | CPI YoY | 0.5 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.80 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | CPI MoM | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.5 | 1 | 0.8 | 0.82 | High |
| Thursday, August 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 3360 | 1220 | 1220.00 | Low | |
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 8 | 7.9 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 1610 | 350 | 350.00 | Medium | |