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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Caixin Composite PMI fell to 50.8 in July 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2025
China Caixin Composite PMI fell to 50.8 in July 2025, released August 2025, down 0.5 from June's 51.3 reading. The reading matched the 50.9 consensus. The reading is in the 17th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
50.8
Actual
50.9
Consensus
51.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.84
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2025
Predicted: 50.35
Actual: 50.8
Error: -0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CNY | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| Copper | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Caixin Composite PMI (China) was reported at 50.80 in August 2025. This missed the market consensus of 50.90 by 0.10. The reading fell from the previous value of 51.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 50.50, down from the prior three at 51.47. In August readings over the past 3 years, Caixin Composite PMI has averaged 51.30.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.84.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2025.
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Caixin Composite PMI - CN
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About Caixin Composite PMI — China
DEFINITION
The Caixin Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a widely recognized economic indicator that measures the overall health and performance of China's manufacturing and services sectors. It provides valuable insights into the country's economic activity, including trends in production, new orders, employment, and prices. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and policymakers as it can help inform decision-making and provide a comprehensive view of China's economic landscape.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2025): actual 52.5, consensus 52. Prior reading (Aug 2025): 51.9. Before that (Jul 2025): 50.8.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.