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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Caixin Services PMI fell to 52 in December 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2026
China Caixin Services PMI fell to 52 in December 2025, released January 2026, down 0.1 from November's 52.1 reading. The reading matched the 52 consensus. Caixin Services PMI has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Caixin Services PMI averaged 52.35, vs 52.83 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
52
Actual
52
Consensus
52.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.32
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2026
Predicted: 52.03
Actual: 52
Error: +0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.84 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Caixin Services PMI (China) was reported at 52.00 in January 2026. This matched the market consensus of 52.00 exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 52.10. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through January 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 52.53, ranging from 52.00 to 53.00 across 6 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 52.23, down from the prior three at 52.83. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.37) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.56).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNH, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.32.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2026.
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Caixin Services PMI - CN
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About Caixin Services PMI — China
DEFINITION
Caixin Services PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the services sector in China. It provides valuable insights into the country's economic health, as the services sector accounts for a significant portion of China's GDP. This indicator is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers in various service industries, and a reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Caixin Services PMI is a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers to track the growth and trends of the Chinese services sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Dec 2025): actual 52, consensus 52. Prior reading (Nov 2025): 52.1. Before that (Oct 2025): 52.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish USD, r=0.84) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.