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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina CPI fell to 0.2% in January 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased February 2026
China CPI fell to 0.2% in January 2026, released February 2026, down 0.6% from December's 0.8% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.4% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.04%. Over the past 3 months, CPI averaged 0.05%, vs 0.05% in the prior 3-month window. CPI is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.4
Consensus
0.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Feb 2026
Predicted: 0.25
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI (China) was reported at 1% in March 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.2%, ranging from -0.1% to 1% across 7 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, up from the prior three at 0%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.34%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.41%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jul 20) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jul 20).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
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CPI - CN
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About CPI — China
DEFINITION
CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is a widely used economic indicator that measures the average change in prices of goods and services purchased by households. It is an important tool for assessing inflation and the overall cost of living for consumers. The CPI is calculated by tracking the prices of a basket of goods and services over time, providing valuable insights into the current state of the economy and its impact on consumers. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions about economic trends and financial strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 1 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 0.2 %. Before that (Dec 2025): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.62) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3.3 | -3.5 | -3.4 | -3.35 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 4.3 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.50 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -5.7 | -4.1 | -4.9 | -5.15 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.13 | Low |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.82 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 1 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 0.03 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Capacity Utilization | 73 | 73.6 | 74 | 72.58 | Low |
| 02:00 | CN | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 4.3 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.50 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.90 | Medium |
| 07:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.30 | Low |
| 07:00 | CN | New Yuan Loans | 1610 | 520 | 2000 | 1805.00 | Medium |
| 07:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 3360 | 2030 | 3770 | 3565.00 | Low |
| 07:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 8 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.25 | Low |
| 07:00 | CN | New Loans | 1610 | 520 | 1950 | 1780.00 | Medium |
| 08:00 | CN | New Loans | 1610 | 520 | 1950 | 1780.00 | Medium |