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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Exports YoY climbed to 25.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China Exports YoY climbed to 25.0% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 1.1% from July's 23.9% reading. The reading matched the 25.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 21.66%. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 25.45%, vs 12.0% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
25
Actual
25
Consensus
23.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.28 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 27.63
Actual: 25
Error: +2.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (China) was reported at 25% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 25% exactly. The reading rose from the previous value of 23.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 19.72%, ranging from 5.9% to 39.6% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 25.3%, down from the prior three at 26.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.5%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.48%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 12.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21) and Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Exports YoY - CN
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About Exports YoY — China
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 25 %, consensus 25 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 23.9 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 27 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bearish USD, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |