China's Exports YoY for December 2025 Show Stronger-Than-Expected Growth at 6.60%
Key Takeaways: China’s exports for December 2025 rose 6.60% year-over-year, surpassing the 3.00% consensus estimate and improving from November’s 5.90%. This acceleration signals resilient external demand despite global headwinds. Monetary easing and fiscal support underpin the export momentum, while geopolitical tensions and supply chain risks remain key uncertainties.
Table of Contents
China’s exports YoY for December 2025 registered a 6.60% increase, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database. This figure outperformed the market consensus of 3.00% and improved on November’s 5.90% growth. The data covers exports denominated in CNY and reflects trade flows for December 2025, with comparisons made against December 2024 and the prior month, November 2025.
Drivers this month
- Robust demand from Southeast Asia and the EU boosted shipments of electronics and machinery.
- Government stimulus measures helped maintain manufacturing output and export capacity.
- Weaker CNY exchange rate enhanced price competitiveness abroad.
Policy pulse
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) maintained accommodative monetary policy through December, keeping benchmark lending rates steady and injecting liquidity to support exporters. Fiscal policy remained expansionary, with increased infrastructure spending and export rebates sustaining trade activity.
Market lens
Following the release, the CNH/USD pair depreciated slightly, reflecting expectations of continued monetary easing. Equity markets 000001.SZ rallied modestly on export optimism, while bond yields edged lower amid stable inflation data.
December’s 6.60% YoY export growth contrasts with a 5.90% increase in November and a 3.00% estimate, highlighting stronger-than-expected external demand. The 12-month average export growth rate stands at approximately 6.30%, indicating that December’s print is slightly above trend.
Historical comparisons
- October 2025: 8.30% YoY growth, the highest in the past six months.
- September 2025: 4.40% YoY growth, reflecting a mid-year slowdown.
- August 2025: 7.20% YoY growth, supported by seasonal demand.
Core macroeconomic indicators
China’s manufacturing PMI remained above 50 in December, signaling expansion. Industrial production grew 4.50% YoY, while retail sales rose 5.10%, supporting domestic demand. Inflation remained contained at 1.80% YoY, allowing the PBOC to maintain accommodative policies.
Monetary policy & financial conditions
The PBOC’s steady policy rates and targeted liquidity injections have eased credit conditions for exporters. The yuan’s depreciation against the dollar by 1.20% over December enhanced export competitiveness, offsetting some cost pressures from rising global commodity prices.
Fiscal policy & government budget
Fiscal stimulus measures, including export tax rebates and infrastructure investment, continued to support trade and manufacturing sectors. The government’s budget deficit target remains expansionary at 3.20% of GDP for 2025, underpinning growth initiatives.
Drivers this month
- Electronics exports increased 8.10% YoY, driven by demand for semiconductors and consumer devices.
- Machinery and equipment exports rose 7.40%, reflecting industrial upgrading.
- Textiles and apparel exports grew 3.50%, recovering from supply chain disruptions earlier in 2025.
This chart highlights a clear upward trend in China’s export growth since September 2025, reversing a temporary slowdown. The sustained momentum suggests resilience amid global uncertainties and effective policy support.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: EUR/CNH fell 0.30% post-release, reflecting yuan strength on export optimism. The 2-year Chinese government bond yield declined 5 basis points, signaling expectations of continued monetary accommodation.
Looking ahead, export growth faces a mix of supportive and challenging factors. The baseline scenario projects 5–7% YoY growth in early 2026, driven by stable global demand and ongoing policy support. However, downside risks include escalating geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions.
Bullish scenario (20% probability)
- Global economic recovery accelerates, boosting demand for Chinese goods.
- Further yuan depreciation enhances export competitiveness.
- Additional fiscal stimulus targets export sectors.
Base scenario (60% probability)
- Moderate global growth sustains steady export demand.
- Monetary policy remains accommodative but cautious.
- Supply chains normalize gradually.
Bearish scenario (20% probability)
- Geopolitical conflicts disrupt trade routes and partnerships.
- Stronger US dollar pressures yuan and export margins.
- Global recession dampens demand for Chinese exports.
Structural & long-run trends
China’s export composition is shifting towards higher value-added goods and technology-intensive products. This structural upgrade supports sustainable export growth despite cyclical volatility. Additionally, diversification of export markets beyond traditional partners reduces concentration risks.
December 2025’s export growth of 6.60% YoY underscores China’s resilience amid a complex global environment. Supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, exports have rebounded from mid-2025 softness. However, vigilance is warranted given geopolitical uncertainties and external shocks. Policymakers will likely maintain supportive stances to safeguard export momentum, while businesses should monitor currency and trade policy developments closely.
Key Markets Likely to React to Exports YoY
China’s export data is a critical barometer for global trade and economic health. Several markets historically track this indicator closely, reflecting their sensitivity to China’s trade flows and currency dynamics.
- 000001.SZ — China’s benchmark stock index, sensitive to export sector performance.
- EURCNH — Euro to Chinese yuan offshore rate, reacts to trade and currency shifts.
- USDCNH — US dollar to yuan offshore pair, reflects monetary policy and trade competitiveness.
- BTCUSDT — Bitcoin tether pair, often moves with risk sentiment linked to global trade outlook.
- 600519.SS — Kweichow Moutai, a proxy for domestic consumption and investor sentiment tied to economic cycles.
Indicator vs. 000001.SZ Since 2020
Since 2020, China’s exports YoY growth and the 000001.SZ index have shown a positive correlation. Periods of export acceleration, such as post-pandemic recovery phases, coincide with rallies in the Shenzhen Composite. Conversely, export slowdowns often precede market corrections, highlighting the index’s sensitivity to trade dynamics.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What does China’s Exports YoY figure indicate?
- The Exports YoY figure measures the year-over-year percentage change in China’s export value, reflecting external demand and trade competitiveness.
- How does the Exports YoY impact China’s economy?
- Exports contribute significantly to China’s GDP and employment. Strong export growth supports manufacturing, industrial output, and overall economic expansion.
- What are the main risks to China’s export growth?
- Key risks include geopolitical tensions, global economic slowdowns, supply chain disruptions, and currency volatility.
Takeaway: December 2025’s export growth of 6.60% YoY signals robust external demand and effective policy support, but ongoing geopolitical and economic risks require cautious optimism.
Updated 1/14/26
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
December 2025 exports YoY rose 6.60%, up from 5.90% in November and above the 12-month average of 6.30%. This marks a rebound from September’s 4.40% and aligns with October’s 8.30% peak in the past six months.
The monthly trend shows a steady recovery in export growth after a mid-year dip, supported by improved global demand and favorable currency movements.