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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Exports YoY climbed to 19.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China Exports YoY climbed to 19.4% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 5.3% from April's 14.1% reading. The print exceeded the 15.0% consensus by 4.4%. Exports YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 8.3%, vs 24.71% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 78th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
19.4
Actual
15
Consensus
14.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 15
Actual: 19.4
Error: -4.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (China) was reported at 19.4% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15% by 4.4%. The reading rose from the previous value of 14.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 13.22%, ranging from 4.4% to 39.6% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 26.93%, up from the prior three at 6.93%. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.05%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.37%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 10.6%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Exports YoY - CN
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About Exports YoY — China
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 19.4 %, consensus 15 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 14.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 2.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bearish USD, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.