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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Exports YoY climbed to 27.0% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China Exports YoY climbed to 27.0% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 7.6% from May's 19.4% reading. The print exceeded the 18.2% consensus by 8.8%. Exports YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 16.75%, vs 24.13% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 92nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
27
Actual
18.2
Consensus
19.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 20.4
Actual: 27
Error: -6.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.55 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (China) was reported at 27% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 18.2% by 8.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 19.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 15.58%, ranging from 4.4% to 39.6% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 28.67%, up from the prior three at 11.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.47%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.4%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 13.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 7, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Exports YoY - CN
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About Exports YoY — China
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 27 %, consensus 18.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 19.4 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 14.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bearish USD, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |