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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Exports YoY climbed to 36.3% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China Exports YoY climbed to 36.3% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 11.3% from August's 25.0% reading. The print exceeded the 25.5% consensus by 10.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 24.4%. Over the past 3 months, Exports YoY averaged 28.4%, vs 20.17% in the prior 3-month window. Exports YoY is now the highest in 6 months.
Latest Release
36.3
Actual
25.5
Consensus
25
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.59 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 25.93
Actual: 36.3
Error: -10.37
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Exports YoY (China) was reported at 36.3% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 25.5% by 10.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of 25%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 22.83%, ranging from 5.9% to 39.6% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 28.4%, down from the prior three at 28.67%. Volatility over the past year (σ 10.79%) is higher than the prior year (σ 3.16%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Exports YoY has averaged 15.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.59%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Exports YoY - CN
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About Exports YoY — China
DEFINITION
Exports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in a country's exports. It provides valuable insights into the performance of a country's international trade and can be used to assess the overall health of its economy. A positive change in Exports YoY indicates an increase in exports, which can lead to economic growth and improved trade balance, while a negative change may suggest a decline in exports and potential economic challenges. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 36.3 %, consensus 25.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 25 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 23.9 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bearish USD, r=-0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | 51.30 | High | |