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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina FDI fell to -10.3% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
China FDI fell to -10.3% in May 2026, down 3.0% from April's -7.3% reading. The reading missed the -6.8% consensus by 3.5%. FDI has now declined for 3 consecutive months. FDI is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
-10.3
Actual
-6.8
Consensus
-7.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -8.15
Actual: -10.3
Error: +2.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
FDI (China) was reported at -10.3% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -6.8% by 3.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of -7.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -10.44%, ranging from -15.2% to -5.7% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -7.23%, up from the prior three at -9.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.13%) is lower than the prior year (σ 7.65%). In May readings over the past 3 years, FDI has averaged -16.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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FDI - CN
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About FDI — China
DEFINITION
FDI, or Foreign Direct Investment, is a key economic indicator that measures the amount of investment made by foreign entities into a country's economy. It is an important measure of a country's attractiveness to foreign investors and can have a significant impact on its economic growth and development. FDI is often used to assess the level of confidence and stability in a country's economy, making it a crucial tool for policymakers and investors alike.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -10.3 %, consensus -6.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -7.3 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -5.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.79) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.