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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina FDI climbed to -5.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China FDI climbed to -5.0% in July 2026, up 3.6% from June's -8.6% reading. The print exceeded the -9.0% consensus by 4.0%. FDI has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, FDI averaged -8.73%, vs -5.7% in the prior 3-month window. FDI is now the highest in 32 months.
Latest Release
-5
Actual
-9
Consensus
-8.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.27 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -9.28
Actual: -5
Error: -4.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
FDI (China) was reported at -5% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -9% by 4%. The reading rose from the previous value of -8.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -8.96%, ranging from -13.4% to -5% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -7.97%, down from the prior three at -6.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.8%) is lower than the prior year (σ 8.1%). In July readings over the past 3 years, FDI has averaged -16.43%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.28%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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FDI - CN
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About FDI — China
DEFINITION
FDI, or Foreign Direct Investment, is a key economic indicator that measures the amount of investment made by foreign entities into a country's economy. It is an important measure of a country's attractiveness to foreign investors and can have a significant impact on its economic growth and development. FDI is often used to assess the level of confidence and stability in a country's economy, making it a crucial tool for policymakers and investors alike.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -5 %, consensus -9 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -8.6 %. Before that (May 2026): -10.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bearish USD, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |