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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina FDI climbed to -4.3% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China FDI climbed to -4.3% in October 2026, up 1.0% from September's -5.3% reading. The print exceeded the -4.8% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -7.21%. Over the past 3 months, FDI averaged -5.27%, vs -7.97% in the prior 3-month window. FDI is now the highest in 31 months.
Latest Release
-4.3
Actual
-4.8
Consensus
-5.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.79 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -4.73
Actual: -4.3
Error: -0.42
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
FDI (China) was reported at -4.3% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -4.8% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of -5.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6.89%, ranging from -10.3% to -4.3% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -5.27%, up from the prior three at -7.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.07%) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.94%). In October readings over the past 3 years, FDI has averaged -15.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.79%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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FDI - CN
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About FDI — China
DEFINITION
FDI, or Foreign Direct Investment, is a key economic indicator that measures the amount of investment made by foreign entities into a country's economy. It is an important measure of a country's attractiveness to foreign investors and can have a significant impact on its economic growth and development. FDI is often used to assess the level of confidence and stability in a country's economy, making it a crucial tool for policymakers and investors alike.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual -4.3 %, consensus -4.8 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): -5.3 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -6.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bearish USD, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | 51.30 | High | |