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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina FDI fell to -6.2% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China FDI fell to -6.2% in August 2026, down 1.2% from July's -5.0% reading. The reading matched the -6.0% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -8.88%. Over the past 3 months, FDI averaged -7.97%, vs -6.23% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 88th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-6.2
Actual
-6
Consensus
-5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.86 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -5.52
Actual: -6.2
Error: +0.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
FDI (China) was reported at -6.2% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -6% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of -5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -8.24%, ranging from -12.7% to -5% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -6.6%, up from the prior three at -7.23%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.48%) is lower than the prior year (σ 7.6%). In August readings over the past 3 years, FDI has averaged -16.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.86%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21) and Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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FDI - CN
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About FDI — China
DEFINITION
FDI, or Foreign Direct Investment, is a key economic indicator that measures the amount of investment made by foreign entities into a country's economy. It is an important measure of a country's attractiveness to foreign investors and can have a significant impact on its economic growth and development. FDI is often used to assess the level of confidence and stability in a country's economy, making it a crucial tool for policymakers and investors alike.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -6.2 %, consensus -6 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -8.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bearish USD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |