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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Fixed Asset Investment fell to -7.2% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China Fixed Asset Investment fell to -7.2% in September 2026, down 0.5% from August's -6.7% reading. The reading matched the -7.2% consensus. Fixed Asset Investment has now declined for 7 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Fixed Asset Investment averaged -6.2%, vs -1.33% in the prior 3-month window. Fixed Asset Investment is now the lowest in 38 months.
Latest Release
-7.2
Actual
-7.2
Consensus
-6.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -7.53
Actual: -7.2
Error: -0.33
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Fixed Asset Investment (China) was reported at -7.2% in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of -7.2% exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of -6.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.87%, ranging from -7.2% to 1.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -6.53%, down from the prior three at -1.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.79%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.72%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Fixed Asset Investment has averaged -0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Fixed Asset Investment - CN
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About Fixed Asset Investment — China
DEFINITION
Fixed Asset Investment is a financial indicator that measures the amount of capital invested in long-term assets, such as buildings, equipment, and land, by a company or economy. This indicator provides insight into the level of investment in physical assets, which can indicate the growth and expansion potential of a business or economy. It is often used by investors and analysts to assess the financial health and future prospects of a company or country. A high level of fixed asset investment is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -7.2 %, consensus -7.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -6.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -5.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish USD, r=0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |