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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Fixed Asset Investment fell to -5.7% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China Fixed Asset Investment fell to -5.7% in July 2026, down 1.6% from June's -4.1% reading. The reading missed the -4.9% consensus by 0.8%. Fixed Asset Investment has now declined for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Fixed Asset Investment averaged -2.85%, vs -0.1% in the prior 3-month window. Fixed Asset Investment is now the lowest in 38 months.
Latest Release
-5.7
Actual
-4.9
Consensus
-4.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -6.23
Actual: -5.7
Error: -0.53
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.65 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Fixed Asset Investment (China) was reported at -5.7% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -4.9% by 0.8%. The reading fell from the previous value of -4.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -1.61%, ranging from -5.7% to 1.8% across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -3.8%, down from the prior three at -1.53%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.37%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.4%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Fixed Asset Investment has averaged 0.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Fixed Asset Investment - CN
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About Fixed Asset Investment — China
DEFINITION
Fixed Asset Investment is a financial indicator that measures the amount of capital invested in long-term assets, such as buildings, equipment, and land, by a company or economy. This indicator provides insight into the level of investment in physical assets, which can indicate the growth and expansion potential of a business or economy. It is often used by investors and analysts to assess the financial health and future prospects of a company or country. A high level of fixed asset investment is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -5.7 %, consensus -4.9 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -4.1 %. Before that (May 2026): -1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.71) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |