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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Fixed Asset Investment fell to -4.1% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China Fixed Asset Investment fell to -4.1% in June 2026, down 2.5% from May's -1.6% reading. The reading missed the -2.0% consensus by 2.1%. Fixed Asset Investment has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Fixed Asset Investment averaged 0.05%, vs -1.0% in the prior 3-month window. Fixed Asset Investment is now the lowest in 38 months.
Latest Release
-4.1
Actual
-2
Consensus
-1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.5 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -3.6
Actual: -4.1
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.69 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Fixed Asset Investment (China) was reported at -4.1% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -2% by 2.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.35%, ranging from -4.1% to 3.7% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1.3%, up from the prior three at -2.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.52%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.35%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Fixed Asset Investment has averaged 1.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.5%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Fixed Asset Investment - CN
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About Fixed Asset Investment — China
DEFINITION
Fixed Asset Investment is a financial indicator that measures the amount of capital invested in long-term assets, such as buildings, equipment, and land, by a company or economy. This indicator provides insight into the level of investment in physical assets, which can indicate the growth and expansion potential of a business or economy. It is often used by investors and analysts to assess the financial health and future prospects of a company or country. A high level of fixed asset investment is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -4.1 %, consensus -2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -1.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.69) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.