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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 4.3% in April 2026
FMPQuarterlyReleased July 2026
China GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to 4.3% in April 2026, released July 2026, down 0.7% from March's 5.0% reading. The reading matched the 4.5% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.11%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 39 months.
Latest Release
4.3
Actual
4.5
Consensus
5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.5
Actual: 4.3
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Copper | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (China) was reported at 4.3% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.5% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a quarterly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.53%, down from the prior three at 5.33%. In July readings over the past 3 years, GDP Growth Rate YoY has averaged 4.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - CN
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — China
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.3 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 5 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 4.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |