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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 4.7% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China Gross Domestic Product YoY fell to 4.7% in April 2026, released July 2026, down 0.3% from March's 5.0% reading. The reading matched the 4.5% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.08%. Gross Domestic Product YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
4.7
Actual
4.5
Consensus
5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 3 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.5
Actual: 4.7
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Copper | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Gross Domestic Product YoY (China) was reported at 4.7% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.5% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Gross Domestic Product YoY - CN
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About Gross Domestic Product YoY — China
DEFINITION
China's Gross Domestic Product YoY for Q2 2026 came in at 4.700000%, beating the 4.500000% estimate. This marks a decline from Q1 2026's 5.000000%, indicating a slowdown in economic growth. Markets will focus on upcoming policy signals as growth moderates. Updated 7/15/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.7 %, consensus 4.5 %. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 5 %. Before that (Oct 2025): 5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bullish CNY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |