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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina House Price Index YoY climbed to -2.8% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China House Price Index YoY climbed to -2.8% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.2% from August's -3.0% reading. The print exceeded the -3.1% consensus by 0.3%. House Price Index YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index YoY averaged -3.1%, vs -3.43% in the prior 3-month window. House Price Index YoY is now the highest in 8 months.
Latest Release
-2.8
Actual
-3.1
Consensus
-3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.21 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: -3.03
Actual: -2.8
Error: -0.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index YoY (China) was reported at -2.8% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3.1% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.99%, ranging from -3.5% to -2.2% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -3%, up from the prior three at -3.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.41%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.22%). In October readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index YoY has averaged -3.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.21%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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House Price Index YoY - CN
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About House Price Index YoY — China
DEFINITION
The House Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling price of residential properties over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, allowing investors, policymakers, and individuals to make informed decisions about buying, selling, or investing in real estate. A positive YoY change indicates a rise in property values, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to assess the strength of the housing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -2.8 %, consensus -3.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -3 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -3.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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