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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina House Price Index YoY climbed to -3.0% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China House Price Index YoY climbed to -3.0% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.2% from July's -3.2% reading. The reading matched the -3.1% consensus. House Price Index YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index YoY averaged -3.25%, vs -3.47% in the prior 3-month window. House Price Index YoY is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
-3
Actual
-3.1
Consensus
-3.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -3.03
Actual: -3
Error: -0.02
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index YoY (China) was reported at -3% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3.1% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.9%, ranging from -3.5% to -2.2% across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -3.17%, up from the prior three at -3.4%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.46%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1.03%). In September readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index YoY has averaged -2.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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House Price Index YoY - CN
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About House Price Index YoY — China
DEFINITION
The House Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling price of residential properties over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, allowing investors, policymakers, and individuals to make informed decisions about buying, selling, or investing in real estate. A positive YoY change indicates a rise in property values, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to assess the strength of the housing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -3 %, consensus -3.1 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -3.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -3.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.79) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |