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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina House Price Index YoY climbed to -3.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China House Price Index YoY climbed to -3.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.1% from June's -3.3% reading. The print exceeded the -3.4% consensus by 0.2%. House Price Index YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index YoY averaged -3.4%, vs -3.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 65th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-3.2
Actual
-3.4
Consensus
-3.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -3.4
Actual: -3.2
Error: -0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.79 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index YoY (China) was reported at -3.2% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -3.4% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -3.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.89%, ranging from -3.5% to -2.2% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -3.33%, down from the prior three at -3.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is lower than the prior year (σ 1%). In August readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index YoY has averaged -3.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.16%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Imports YoY (Sep 8) and Balance of Trade (Sep 8).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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House Price Index YoY - CN
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About House Price Index YoY — China
DEFINITION
The House Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling price of residential properties over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, allowing investors, policymakers, and individuals to make informed decisions about buying, selling, or investing in real estate. A positive YoY change indicates a rise in property values, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to assess the strength of the housing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -3.2 %, consensus -3.4 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -3.3 %. Before that (May 2026): -3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.79) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | CN | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.419 | 3.43 | 3.44 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | CN | Balance of Trade | 112.5 | 120.1 | 126.77 | High | |
| 03:00 | CN | Balance of Trade Yuan | 767.07 | 795 | 838.49 | Low | |