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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina House Price Index YoY held to -3.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China House Price Index YoY held to -3.5% in May 2026, released June 2026. The reading matched the -3.4% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -2.89%. Over the past 3 months, House Price Index YoY averaged -3.45%, vs -3.0% in the prior 3-month window. House Price Index YoY is now the lowest in 12 months.
Latest Release
-3.5
Actual
-3.4
Consensus
-3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.24 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: -3.4
Actual: -3.5
Error: +0.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | INDEX | Bullish S&P 500 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
House Price Index YoY (China) was reported at -3.5% in June 2026. This missed the market consensus of -3.4% by 0.1%. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -2.9%, ranging from -3.5% to -2.2% across 12 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -3.4%, down from the prior three at -2.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.63%). In June readings over the past 3 years, House Price Index YoY has averaged -3.63%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.24%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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House Price Index YoY - CN
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About House Price Index YoY — China
DEFINITION
The House Price Index YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the average selling price of residential properties over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and trends of the housing market, allowing investors, policymakers, and individuals to make informed decisions about buying, selling, or investing in real estate. A positive YoY change indicates a rise in property values, while a negative change suggests a decline. This indicator is widely used by economists and analysts to assess the strength of the housing sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -3.5 %, consensus -3.4 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): -3.5 %. Before that (Mar 2026): -3.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.80) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.