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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Imports YoY climbed to 31.0% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China Imports YoY climbed to 31.0% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 2.8% from August's 28.2% reading. The print exceeded the 24.5% consensus by 6.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 24.18%. Over the past 3 months, Imports YoY averaged 28.9%, vs 29.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 94th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
31
Actual
24.5
Consensus
28.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 23.95
Actual: 31
Error: -7.05
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Imports YoY (China) was reported at 31% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 24.5% by 6.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of 28.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 21.26%, ranging from 1.9% to 36% across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 28.9%, up from the prior three at 25.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 11.11%) is higher than the prior year (σ 4%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Imports YoY has averaged 12.9%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include New Loans (Oct 15) and House Price Index YoY (Oct 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Imports YoY - CN
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About Imports YoY — China
DEFINITION
Imports YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the total value of goods and services imported into a country. It provides valuable insights into a country's economic health and its trade relationships with other nations. A positive Imports YoY indicates an increase in imports, which can stimulate economic growth and consumer demand. On the other hand, a negative Imports YoY may suggest a decline in economic activity and potential trade imbalances. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the overall health of a country's economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 31 %, consensus 24.5 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 28.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 27.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.74) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | Producer Price Index YoY | 5 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.75 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.25 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1 | 0.95 | High |
| 02:30 | CN | Balance of Trade Yuan | 905.97 | 809.3 | 805 | 855.49 | Low |
| 02:30 | CN | Imports YoY | 31 | 28.2 | 24.5 | 27.75 | High |
| 02:30 | CN | Balance of Trade | 133.53 | 119.09 | 118.1 | 125.81 | High |
| 02:30 | CN | Exports YoY | 36.3 | 25 | 25.5 | 30.90 | High |
| 03:00 | CN | Exports YoY | 36.3 | 25 | 25.5 | 30.90 | High |
| 03:00 | CN | Imports YoY | 31 | 28.2 | 24.5 | 27.75 | High |
| 03:00 | CN | Balance of Trade Yuan | 905.97 | 809.3 | 805 | 855.49 | Low |
| 03:00 | CN | Balance of Trade | 133.53 | 119.09 | 118.1 | 125.81 | High |
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.23 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 1080 | 60 | 975 | 879.17 | Medium |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 3550 | 1660 | 3270 | 3237.50 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.77 | Low |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.23 | Low | |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 3270 | 3237.50 | Low | |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.8 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 4.77 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | 975 | 879.17 | Medium | |