China’s imports YoY growth for December 2025 surged to 5.70%, a sharp rebound from November’s 1.90% and October’s 7.40%. This figure also contrasts with the subdued readings earlier in 2025, including negative growth in mid-year months such as June (-3.40%) and May (-0.20%). The 12-month average import growth now stands near 1.50%, underscoring the recent volatility and the strong upward momentum in late 2025.

Drivers this month

• Renewed domestic demand following easing COVID restrictions and stimulus measures.
• Increased commodity imports, especially energy and raw materials, supporting industrial activity.
• Supply chain normalization after disruptions in mid-2025.

Policy pulse

The import rebound aligns with China’s accommodative monetary stance and targeted fiscal support. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) maintained steady policy rates in December, focusing on liquidity support rather than tightening. Fiscal spending on infrastructure and consumption subsidies has bolstered import demand, particularly for intermediate goods.

Market lens

Following the release, the Chinese yuan (CNY) appreciated modestly against the US dollar, reflecting improved trade sentiment. Short-term bond yields edged higher, pricing in stronger economic activity. Equity markets responded positively, particularly in sectors linked to industrial production and commodities.

December’s 5.70% imports growth contrasts sharply with the negative and low single-digit growth seen earlier in 2025. For example, March’s imports contracted by 8.40%, April by 4.30%, and June by 3.40%. The rebound signals a recovery phase after a challenging first half of the year marked by weak external demand and domestic adjustments.

Comparative figures

• December 2025: 5.70% YoY imports growth
• November 2025: 1.90% YoY
• October 2025: 7.40% YoY
• 12-month average (Jan-Dec 2025): ~1.50% YoY

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The PBOC’s steady monetary policy stance has supported import growth by maintaining favorable credit conditions. Liquidity injections and targeted lending to key sectors have helped stabilize demand for imported capital and intermediate goods. Inflation remains contained, allowing the central bank to avoid aggressive tightening.

Fiscal policy & government budget

China’s fiscal authorities have continued infrastructure spending and consumption incentives, which have stimulated import demand. The government’s budget deficit widened slightly in late 2025 to accommodate these measures, reflecting a deliberate trade-off to sustain growth amid external uncertainties.

What This Chart Tells Us

Market lens

Immediate reaction: The CNY/USD pair strengthened by 0.30% within the first hour post-release, while 2-year government bond yields rose by 5 basis points, reflecting increased growth expectations. Equity indices in Shanghai and Shenzhen gained 0.70%, led by industrial and materials sectors.

Looking ahead, China’s imports growth trajectory depends on several factors, including global demand, domestic policy, and geopolitical risks. We outline three scenarios:

Bullish scenario (30% probability)

• Global economic recovery accelerates, boosting demand for Chinese imports of raw materials and capital goods.
• China’s domestic stimulus continues, supporting consumption and industrial production.
• Geopolitical tensions ease, facilitating smoother trade flows.
• Imports YoY growth sustains above 6% through Q1 2026.

Base scenario (50% probability)

• Moderate global growth with some headwinds from inflation and supply chain frictions.
• China maintains current monetary and fiscal policies, balancing growth and stability.
• Imports growth stabilizes around 4-6% YoY in early 2026.

Bearish scenario (20% probability)

• External shocks such as renewed trade tensions or global recession dampen import demand.
• Domestic policy tightens due to inflationary pressures or financial risks.
• Imports growth slows below 3% YoY, risking broader economic slowdown.

Risks and opportunities

Upside risks include stronger-than-expected global demand and successful policy stimulus. Downside risks stem from geopolitical instability, supply chain disruptions, and potential credit tightening. Monitoring these factors will be critical for forecasting China’s import trends and their global ripple effects.

December 2025’s 5.70% YoY import growth marks a decisive rebound for China’s trade activity, signaling renewed industrial vigor and improving external conditions. While volatility remains, the data points to a stabilizing and potentially expanding import trend heading into 2026. Policymakers face the challenge of sustaining momentum amid global uncertainties and domestic financial risks.

For global markets, China’s import recovery suggests stronger demand for commodities and intermediate goods, supporting exporters worldwide. However, vigilance is warranted given the complex interplay of monetary, fiscal, and geopolitical factors shaping the outlook.

Key Markets Likely to React to Imports YoY

China’s imports YoY data is a critical indicator for several asset classes. Markets closely track this figure to gauge domestic demand and global trade health. The following symbols historically correlate with import trends and are likely to react to this release:

• 600519.SS – A major Chinese consumer goods stock sensitive to import-driven supply chains.
• USDCNH – The USD/CNY offshore currency pair, reflecting trade sentiment and capital flows.
• EURCNH – Euro to Chinese yuan offshore rate, influenced by trade and macroeconomic shifts.
• BTCUSDT – Bitcoin tether pair, often reacting to risk sentiment linked to China’s economic outlook.
• 601318.SS – A leading Chinese financial stock, sensitive to trade and economic growth prospects.

FAQs

What does China’s Imports YoY figure indicate?

The Imports YoY figure measures the annual percentage change in the value of goods China imports, reflecting domestic demand and global trade conditions.

How does the December 2025 reading compare historically?

December’s 5.70% growth is a strong rebound from earlier 2025 lows, signaling recovery after mid-year contractions and volatility.

Why is this data important for investors?

Imports growth impacts currency valuation, commodity prices, and equity markets, serving as a barometer for China’s economic health and global trade trends.

Key takeaway: December 2025’s robust imports growth signals a turning point for China’s trade recovery, with broad implications for global markets and policy outlooks.

Updated 1/14/26

This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.