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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Industrial Production YoY climbed to 4.5% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
China Industrial Production YoY climbed to 4.5% in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.4% from April's 4.1% reading. The reading matched the 4.3% consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 5.59%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 4.9%, vs 5.75% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 10th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
4.5
Actual
4.3
Consensus
4.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 3.4
Actual: 4.5
Error: -1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (China) was reported at 4.5% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.3% by 0.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.44%, ranging from 4.1% to 6.8% across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.97%, down from the prior three at 4.97%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.82%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.48%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged 5.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/CNH (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for July 15, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - CN
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About Industrial Production YoY — China
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.5 %, consensus 4.3 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.1 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 5.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNH (Bullish USD, r=0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.