China’s Industrial Production YoY for December 2025: Growth Accelerates, Surpassing Forecasts
China’s Industrial Production YoY for December 2025 climbed to 5.20%, outpacing both consensus estimates and the prior month’s reading. This marks a notable acceleration in the country’s manufacturing output, with ripple effects for monetary policy, financial markets, and the global economy.
Table of Contents
Big-Picture Snapshot
China’s industrial production expanded by 5.20% year-on-year in December 2025, according to the latest release from the Sigmanomics database[1]. This figure exceeded market expectations of 5.00% and marked a clear improvement from November’s 4.80% pace. The December print also stands above the 12-month average of 5.50%, though it remains below the highs seen in early 2025, such as January’s 6.20% surge.
Geographically, the rebound was broad-based, with coastal manufacturing hubs and inland provinces both contributing to the upturn. Temporally, December’s result reverses a two-month soft patch and signals renewed momentum as China enters 2026. Compared to October’s 6.50% and September’s 5.20%, the latest data suggest stabilization after mid-year volatility.
Drivers this month
- Electronics and machinery output up 6.30% YoY, contributing 0.90 percentage points (pp) to the headline.
- Automotive production rebounded 5.70% YoY, adding 0.70 pp.
- Energy and chemicals rose 4.40% YoY, supporting 0.50 pp of growth.
Policy pulse
December’s print sits comfortably above the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) implicit 5% industrial growth comfort zone. This reduces immediate pressure for further monetary easing, though authorities remain vigilant amid external headwinds and property sector fragility.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: CNY strengthened 0.18% against USD in the first hour post-release, while CSI 300 futures rose 0.40%. The positive surprise buoyed risk sentiment, with industrial and export-linked equities outperforming, and 2-year Chinese government bond yields ticking up by 3 basis points.
Foundational Indicators
China’s industrial production is a bellwether for the broader economy, closely tracking GDP, employment, and trade flows. December’s 5.20% YoY growth comes after a period of mixed signals: November posted a 4.80% gain, while October saw a stronger 6.50% expansion. The 12-month average now stands at 5.50%, with the lowest point in the past year at 4.80% (November) and the highest at 6.50% (October).
Other core indicators provide context. Fixed asset investment grew 4.10% YoY in December, while retail sales advanced 6.00%. Export volumes rebounded 3.80% YoY, reflecting improved global demand. On the monetary front, aggregate financing expanded by 9.70% YoY, and M2 money supply growth held steady at 8.90%.
Drivers this month
- Export-oriented sectors benefited from easing global supply chain bottlenecks.
- Domestic infrastructure spending, underpinned by fiscal stimulus, supported heavy industry.
- Private sector sentiment improved, as evidenced by a 1.20-point rise in the manufacturing PMI to 51.10.
Policy pulse
Fiscal policy remained supportive, with local governments front-loading infrastructure budgets. The central government’s deficit widened to 3.20% of GDP in 2025, reflecting counter-cyclical spending.
Market lens
Chinese equities and the CNY both gained modestly on the data, with industrials and exporters leading. Offshore investors increased allocations to A-shares, while credit spreads narrowed slightly.
Chart Dynamics
Drivers this month
- Electronics and auto output led the rebound, offsetting softness in textiles and basic metals.
- Export orders rose, while domestic demand for capital goods improved.
Policy pulse
PBOC maintained a neutral stance, with no major rate moves in December. Liquidity injections were targeted, and policymakers signaled a preference for stability over aggressive easing.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: USD/CNY dipped 0.18%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.50% in early trading. Industrial-linked ETFs saw inflows, and copper futures rallied 1.10% on hopes of stronger demand.
Forward Outlook
The December print sets a constructive tone for early 2026, but risks remain. Upside drivers include sustained export demand, further fiscal support, and stabilization in the property sector. Downside risks stem from potential global slowdowns, renewed trade tensions, and domestic credit tightening.
Scenario probabilities:
- Bullish (30%): Industrial production accelerates above 5.50% YoY in Q1 2026, driven by robust exports and infrastructure stimulus.
- Base case (55%): Growth stabilizes in the 5.00–5.30% range, with policy support offsetting external headwinds.
- Bearish (15%): Output slips below 4.80% amid global demand shocks or renewed domestic financial stress.
Drivers this month
- Improved global demand for electronics and autos.
- Continued fiscal stimulus and infrastructure rollout.
Policy pulse
Authorities are likely to maintain a “wait-and-see” approach, with targeted support for weak sectors but no broad-based easing unless growth falters.
Market lens
Market pricing reflects cautious optimism, with industrial equities and the CNY both pricing in stable growth, but volatility remains elevated given global uncertainties.
Closing Thoughts
December’s 5.20% YoY industrial production growth marks a welcome acceleration for China, signaling resilience in the face of global and domestic challenges. The rebound was broad-based, with key sectors and regions contributing. While the outlook is constructive, policymakers and markets remain alert to downside risks, including external shocks and property sector fragility. The coming months will test the durability of this recovery, but for now, China’s industrial engine appears to be regaining steam.
Key Markets Likely to React to Industrial Production YoY
China’s industrial production data is closely watched by global investors, as it signals demand for commodities, manufacturing inputs, and export-linked assets. The following symbols are historically sensitive to swings in this indicator, reflecting their exposure to China’s industrial cycle, currency moves, and global risk sentiment.
- 600519 – Kweichow Moutai: Often moves with China’s domestic consumption and industrial sentiment.
- TSLA – Tesla: Correlates with Chinese EV production and supply chain health.
- USDCNY – USD/CNY: Tracks shifts in China’s economic momentum and capital flows.
- EURCNY – EUR/CNY: Sensitive to China-EU trade and industrial demand.
- BTCUSDT – Bitcoin/USDT: Reacts to Chinese liquidity and risk appetite shifts.
| Year | Avg. Ind. Prod. YoY (%) | USD/CNY (Year-End) |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 2.80 | 6.52 |
| 2021 | 9.60 | 6.36 |
| 2022 | 3.60 | 6.90 |
| 2023 | 4.30 | 7.10 |
| 2024 | 5.10 | 7.18 |
| 2025 | 5.50 | 7.06 |
Periods of stronger industrial production growth have historically coincided with CNY appreciation versus the USD, as robust output boosts investor confidence and capital inflows. The December 2025 rebound, if sustained, could support further CNY strength.
FAQ: China’s Industrial Production YoY for December 2025
Q1: What does China’s 5.20% YoY industrial production growth in December 2025 indicate?
A1: It signals a renewed acceleration in manufacturing output, surpassing expectations and reversing a two-month slowdown.
Q2: How does this result compare with previous months and the annual trend?
A2: December’s 5.20% is up from November’s 4.80%, but slightly below the 12-month average of 5.50%, showing stabilization after recent volatility.
Q3: What are the main risks and opportunities for markets following this release?
A3: Upside risks include continued export strength and fiscal support; downside risks involve global demand shocks and domestic financial stress.
Takeaway: China’s December 2025 industrial production rebound signals renewed momentum, but vigilance is warranted as global and domestic risks persist.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
Updated 1/19/26
- Sigmanomics database, “China Industrial Production YoY,” accessed January 19, 2026.
December’s 5.20% YoY print outpaced November’s 4.80% and sits just below the 12-month average of 5.50%. The chart below illustrates a V-shaped recovery from the November trough, with the latest reading reversing two consecutive months of deceleration. October’s 6.50% marked the recent peak, while September’s 5.20% and August’s 5.70% highlight the volatility seen in H2 2025.
Key figure: The 0.40 percentage point MoM acceleration from November to December is the sharpest since mid-2025. The 12-month trend line remains upward-sloping, but the pace is less robust than early 2025, when readings consistently topped 6%.