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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Industrial Production YoY climbed to 5.3% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China Industrial Production YoY climbed to 5.3% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.8% from May's 4.5% reading. The print exceeded the 4.6% consensus by 0.7%. Industrial Production YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 4.3%, vs 5.73% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 43rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.3
Actual
4.6
Consensus
4.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.84 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 4.2
Actual: 5.3
Error: -1.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (China) was reported at 5.3% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 4.6% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 4.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.25%, ranging from 4.1% to 6.5% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 4.63%, down from the prior three at 5.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.71%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.62%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged 5.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.84%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - CN
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About Industrial Production YoY — China
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 5.3 %, consensus 4.6 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.5 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNY (Bearish USD, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |