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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Industrial Production YoY climbed to 5.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China Industrial Production YoY climbed to 5.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.3% from August's 5.2% reading. The reading matched the 5.4% consensus. Industrial Production YoY has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production YoY averaged 4.85%, vs 4.63% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 55th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
5.5
Actual
5.4
Consensus
5.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.77 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 5.38
Actual: 5.5
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production YoY (China) was reported at 5.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 5.4% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 5.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 5.03%, ranging from 4.1% to 6.3% across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 5.07%, up from the prior three at 4.63%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.59%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.49%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production YoY has averaged 5.8%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Production YoY - CN
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About Industrial Production YoY — China
DEFINITION
Industrial Production YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors over a 12-month period. It provides valuable insights into the health and growth of a country's industrial sector, which is a crucial component of its overall economic performance. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can signal potential shifts in the economy and help inform business and investment decisions. A positive YoY growth in industrial production indicates a strong and expanding industrial sector, while a negative growth may suggest a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 5.5 %, consensus 5.4 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 5.2 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 4.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | 51.30 | High | |