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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Industrial Profits YoY fell to 15.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China Industrial Profits YoY fell to 15.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.2% from August's 15.7% reading. The reading matched the 15.2% consensus. Industrial Profits YoY has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Profits YoY averaged 16.65%, vs 18.45% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Profits YoY is now the lowest in 6 months.
Latest Release
15.5
Actual
15.2
Consensus
15.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 15.02
Actual: 15.5
Error: -0.48
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Profits YoY (China) was reported at 15.5% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 15.2% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 15.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 11.5%, ranging from 0.1% to 18.7% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 16.27%, down from the prior three at 17.37%. Volatility over the past year (σ 7.62%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.61%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Profits YoY - CN
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About Industrial Profits YoY — China
DEFINITION
Industrial Profits YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in profits for industrial companies. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the industrial sector, which is a key driver of economic growth. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can indicate trends in corporate earnings and potential shifts in the broader economy. A positive YoY growth in industrial profits is generally seen as a sign of a strong and growing economy, while a decline may signal potential challenges ahead.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 15.5 %, consensus 15.2 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 15.7 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 17.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bearish Nikkei 225, r=-0.72) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | 51.30 | High | |