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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Industrial Profits YoY fell to 18.7% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China Industrial Profits YoY fell to 18.7% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.1% from May's 18.8% reading. The reading matched the 19.2% consensus. Industrial Profits YoY has now risen for 6 consecutive months. Industrial Profits YoY is now the highest in 49 months.
Latest Release
18.7
Actual
19.2
Consensus
18.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.76 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 22.3
Actual: 18.7
Error: +3.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.87 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Profits YoY (China) was reported at 18.7% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 19.2% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 18.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 6.34%, ranging from -1.7% to 18.7% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 17.37%, up from the prior three at 0.87%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.76%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Industrial Profits YoY - CN
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About Industrial Profits YoY — China
DEFINITION
Industrial Profits YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in profits for industrial companies. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the industrial sector, which is a key driver of economic growth. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can indicate trends in corporate earnings and potential shifts in the broader economy. A positive YoY growth in industrial profits is generally seen as a sign of a strong and growing economy, while a decline may signal potential challenges ahead.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 18.7 %, consensus 19.2 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 18.2 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 15.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.87) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |