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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Industrial Profits YoY climbed to 18.2% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
China Industrial Profits YoY climbed to 18.2% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 2.7% from March's 15.5% reading. The print exceeded the 12.0% consensus by 6.2%. Industrial Profits YoY has now risen for 5 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Profits YoY averaged 15.35%, vs 0.35% in the prior 3-month window. Industrial Profits YoY is now the highest in 47 months.
Latest Release
18.2
Actual
12
Consensus
15.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.76 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 19.15
Actual: 18.2
Error: +0.95
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.82 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.33 | FOREX | Bearish AUD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Profits YoY (China) was reported at 18.2% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 12% by 6.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of 15.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.55%, ranging from -1.8% to 18.2% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 11.33%, up from the prior three at 1.73%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.76%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Industrial Profits YoY - CN
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About Industrial Profits YoY — China
DEFINITION
Industrial Profits YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in profits for industrial companies. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the industrial sector, which is a key driver of economic growth. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can indicate trends in corporate earnings and potential shifts in the broader economy. A positive YoY growth in industrial profits is generally seen as a sign of a strong and growing economy, while a decline may signal potential challenges ahead.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 18.2 %, consensus 12 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 15.5 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 15.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.82) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.