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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Industrial Profits YoY fell to 17.6% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China Industrial Profits YoY fell to 17.6% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1.1% from June's 18.7% reading. The print exceeded the 16.0% consensus by 1.6%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 5.81%. The reading is in the 84th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
17.6
Actual
16
Consensus
18.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.04 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 15.75
Actual: 17.6
Error: -1.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.84 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.76 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.73 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Profits YoY (China) was reported at 17.6% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 16% by 1.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 18.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 8.49%, ranging from 0.1% to 18.7% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 18.17%, up from the prior three at 5.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 8.08%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.21%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, negatively correlated (Bearish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.04%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Industrial Profits YoY - CN
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About Industrial Profits YoY — China
DEFINITION
Industrial Profits YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in profits for industrial companies. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and performance of the industrial sector, which is a key driver of economic growth. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can indicate trends in corporate earnings and potential shifts in the broader economy. A positive YoY growth in industrial profits is generally seen as a sign of a strong and growing economy, while a decline may signal potential challenges ahead.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 17.6 %, consensus 16 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 18.7 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 18.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.84) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |