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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Inflation Rate MoM climbed to -0.1% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China Inflation Rate MoM climbed to -0.1% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.2% from June's -0.3% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.08%. The reading is in the 36th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
0.2
Consensus
-0.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.15 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.25
Actual: -0.1
Error: +0.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (China) was reported at -0.1% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.15%, ranging from -0.1% to 1% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, up from the prior three at 0.1%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.34%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.36%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.15%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 9, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Imports YoY (Sep 8) and Balance of Trade (Sep 8).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - CN
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About Inflation Rate MoM — China
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.1 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.55) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | CN | Foreign Exchange Reserves | 3.419 | 3.43 | 3.44 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 03:00 | CN | Balance of Trade | 112.5 | 120.1 | 126.77 | High | |
| 03:00 | CN | Balance of Trade Yuan | 767.07 | 795 | 838.49 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | Inflation Rate YoY | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.85 | High | |
| 01:30 | CN | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.25 | Medium | |
| 01:30 | CN | Producer Price Index YoY | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |