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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.4% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China Inflation Rate MoM climbed to 0.4% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.5% from July's -0.1% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.3% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.09%. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.3
Consensus
-0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 0.15
Actual: 0.4
Error: -0.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Inflation Rate MoM (China) was reported at 0.4% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.2%, ranging from -0.1% to 1% across 8 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.07%, down from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.35%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.33%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Inflation Rate MoM has averaged 0.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 14, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Inflation Rate MoM - CN
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About Inflation Rate MoM — China
DEFINITION
The Inflation Rate MoM (Month-over-Month) is a financial indicator that measures the percentage change in the overall price level of goods and services in a given economy from one month to the next. It is a key measure of inflation and provides insight into the rate at which prices are rising or falling, which can impact consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the health of an economy and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.1 %. Before that (May 2026): -0.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.52) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |