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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Loan Prime Rate 1Y held to 3.0% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China Loan Prime Rate 1Y held to 3.0% in July 2026. The reading matched the 3.0% consensus. Over the past 3 months, Loan Prime Rate 1Y averaged 3.0%, vs 3.0% in the prior 3-month window. Loan Prime Rate 1Y is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
3
Actual
3
Consensus
3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3
Actual: 3
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Loan Prime Rate 1Y (China) was reported at 3% in July 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3%, ranging from 3% to 3% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.11%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Loan Prime Rate 1Y has averaged 3.12%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 20, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Loan Prime Rate 1Y - CN
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About Loan Prime Rate 1Y — China
DEFINITION
The Loan Prime Rate 1Y is a key financial indicator used to determine the interest rate at which banks lend money to their most creditworthy customers for a period of one year. This rate is set by the People's Bank of China and serves as a benchmark for other lending rates in the Chinese financial market. It is a crucial factor in determining the cost of borrowing for businesses and individuals, and can have a significant impact on the overall economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3 %, consensus 3 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 3 %. Before that (May 2026): 3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |