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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Loan Prime Rate 5Y held to 3.5% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China Loan Prime Rate 5Y held to 3.5% in August 2026. The reading matched the 3.5% consensus. Over the past 3 months, Loan Prime Rate 5Y averaged 3.5%, vs 3.5% in the prior 3-month window. Loan Prime Rate 5Y is now the lowest in 35 months.
Latest Release
3.5
Actual
3.5
Consensus
3.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 3.5
Actual: 3.5
Error: +0
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Loan Prime Rate 5Y (China) was reported at 3.5% in August 2026. This matched the market consensus of 3.5% exactly. The reading was unchanged from the previous release. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.5%, ranging from 3.5% to 3.5% across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.5%, unchanged from the prior three. Volatility over the past year (σ 0%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.09%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Loan Prime Rate 5Y has averaged 3.62%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 21, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include FDI (Sep 17) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Loan Prime Rate 5Y - CN
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About Loan Prime Rate 5Y — China
DEFINITION
The Loan Prime Rate 5Y is a key financial indicator used to determine the interest rate for loans in a specific market. It represents the average rate at which banks are willing to lend money to their most creditworthy customers for a period of 5 years. This rate is closely monitored by investors, businesses, and consumers as it can impact the cost of borrowing and overall economic activity. The Loan Prime Rate 5Y is often used as a benchmark for setting other interest rates and serves as an important tool for assessing the health of the lending market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 3.5 %, consensus 3.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 3.5 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AUD/USD (Bullish AUD, r=0.52) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |