Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.1 in February 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased March 2026
China Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.1 in February 2026, released March 2026, up 1.8 from January's 50.3 reading. The reading matched the 50.5 consensus. Manufacturing PMI has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Manufacturing PMI averaged 50.2, vs 50.57 in the prior 3-month window. Manufacturing PMI is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
52.1
Actual
50.5
Consensus
50.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.3
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 50.5
Actual: 52.1
Error: -1.6
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.83 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.75 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.54 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.48 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Manufacturing PMI (China) was reported at 52.10 in March 2026. This beat the market consensus of 50.50 by 1.60. The reading rose from the previous value of 50.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through March 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.39, ranging from 49.40 to 52.10 across 10 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 50.83, up from the prior three at 50.57. In March readings over the past 3 years, Manufacturing PMI has averaged 50.93.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.30.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2026.
SHARE
Manufacturing PMI - CN
Loading chart data...
About Manufacturing PMI — China
DEFINITION
Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the manufacturing sector in a country. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers from various industries, providing valuable insights into production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. This widely followed indicator is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to assess the overall economic performance and make informed decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2026): actual 49, consensus 50.5. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 49.4. Before that (Dec 2025): 50.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.83) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.