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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina NBS General PMI climbed to 49.5 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
China NBS General PMI climbed to 49.5 in August 2026, up 0.2 from July's 49.3 reading. The reading matched the 50.2 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1. Over the past 3 months, NBS General PMI averaged 49.95, vs 50.15 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 8th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
49.5
Actual
50.2
Consensus
49.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.43
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 49.9
Actual: 49.5
Error: +0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NBS General PMI (China) was reported at 49.50 in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 50.20 by 0.70. The reading rose from the previous value of 49.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.06, ranging from 49.30 to 50.70 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 49.80, down from the prior three at 50.17. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.50) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.58). In August readings over the past 3 years, NBS General PMI has averaged 50.03.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CNH (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.43.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21) and Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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NBS General PMI - CN
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About NBS General PMI — China
DEFINITION
The NBS General PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in a country. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers and provides valuable insights into key economic factors such as production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. This indicator is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to gauge the strength of the manufacturing industry and make informed decisions. With its comprehensive and timely data, the NBS General PMI is a crucial tool for assessing the economic outlook and identifying potential opportunities and risks.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 49.5, consensus 50.2. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 49.3. Before that (Jun 2026): 50.6.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CNH (Bearish USD, r=-0.56) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |