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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina NBS General PMI fell to 49.3 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China NBS General PMI fell to 49.3 in July 2026, down 1.3 from June's 50.6 reading. The reading matched the 50.4 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 0.9. Over the past 3 months, NBS General PMI averaged 50.55, vs 50.03 in the prior 3-month window. NBS General PMI is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
49.3
Actual
50.4
Consensus
50.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.59
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 50.43
Actual: 49.3
Error: +1.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NBS General PMI (China) was reported at 49.30 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 50.40 by 1.10. The reading fell from the previous value of 50.60. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 50.15, ranging from 49.30 to 50.70 across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 50.13, up from the prior three at 49.93. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.60). In July readings over the past 3 years, NBS General PMI has averaged 49.90.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNH, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.59.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 31, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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NBS General PMI - CN
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About NBS General PMI — China
DEFINITION
The NBS General PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the overall health and performance of the manufacturing sector in a country. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers and provides valuable insights into key economic factors such as production levels, new orders, employment, and supplier deliveries. This indicator is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to gauge the strength of the manufacturing industry and make informed decisions. With its comprehensive and timely data, the NBS General PMI is a crucial tool for assessing the economic outlook and identifying potential opportunities and risks.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 49.3, consensus 50.4. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 50.6. Before that (May 2026): 50.5.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.80) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |