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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July 2026, down 1.1 from June's 50.3 reading. The reading matched the 50 consensus. Over the past 3 months, NBS Manufacturing PMI averaged 50.15, vs 49.9 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 25th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
49.2
Actual
50
Consensus
50.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.44
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 50.05
Actual: 49.2
Error: +0.85
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.82 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NBS Manufacturing PMI (China) was reported at 49.20 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 50.00 by 0.80. The reading fell from the previous value of 50.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.61, ranging from 49.00 to 50.40 across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 49.83, up from the prior three at 49.57. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.50) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.50). In July readings over the past 3 years, NBS Manufacturing PMI has averaged 49.30.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.44.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 31, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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NBS Manufacturing PMI - CN
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About NBS Manufacturing PMI — China
DEFINITION
The NBS Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in a country. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers and provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the manufacturing industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can indicate potential changes in economic activity and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. The NBS Manufacturing PMI is a key tool for assessing the economic outlook and making informed business decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 49.2, consensus 50. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 50.3. Before that (May 2026): 50.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.82) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |