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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 50 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
China NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 50 in May 2026, down 0.3 from April's 50.3 reading. The reading matched the 50 consensus. NBS Manufacturing PMI has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, NBS Manufacturing PMI averaged 49.9, vs 49.7 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 65th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
50
Actual
50
Consensus
50.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.31
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 49.85
Actual: 50
Error: -0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| USD/CNY | ▼ Inverse | −0.25 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NBS Manufacturing PMI (China) was reported at 50.00 in May 2026. This matched the market consensus of 50.00 exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 50.30. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.56, ranging from 49.00 to 50.40 across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 49.80, up from the prior three at 49.53. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.45) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.50). In May readings over the past 3 years, NBS Manufacturing PMI has averaged 49.67.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.31.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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NBS Manufacturing PMI - CN
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About NBS Manufacturing PMI — China
DEFINITION
The NBS Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector in a country. It is based on a monthly survey of purchasing managers and provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the manufacturing industry. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can indicate potential changes in economic activity and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. The NBS Manufacturing PMI is a key tool for assessing the economic outlook and making informed business decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 50, consensus 50. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 50.3. Before that (Mar 2026): 50.4.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.81) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.