China’s November 2025 NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI: A Cautious Signal Amidst Economic Headwinds
The November 2025 NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for China slipped to 49.50, below the 50 expansion threshold and market expectations of 50.00. This marks the first contraction in the sector since July 2024, signaling mounting pressures on services and construction amid slowing domestic demand and external uncertainties. Monetary policy remains accommodative but cautious, while fiscal stimulus is limited. Geopolitical tensions and global financial volatility add downside risks. Forward-looking scenarios range from a mild rebound to a deeper slowdown depending on policy responses and external shocks.
Table of Contents
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Non-Manufacturing PMI for China in November 2025 registered 49.50, down from 50.10 in October and below the neutral 50 mark. This contractionary reading contrasts with a 12-month average of 50.20, reflecting a notable shift in the non-manufacturing sector’s momentum. The data covers services and construction industries nationwide, providing a timely gauge of economic activity outside manufacturing.
Drivers this month
- Services sector contraction, driven by weaker consumer spending and travel restrictions easing slower than expected.
- Construction activity declined amid tighter credit conditions and cautious local government spending.
- New orders and business expectations softened, reflecting uncertainty in both domestic and export markets.
Policy pulse
The PMI reading sits below the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) implicit growth target zone, signaling potential downside risks to GDP growth. The PBOC has maintained steady policy rates but signaled readiness for targeted easing if conditions deteriorate further.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Chinese yuan (CNY) weakened 0.30% against the USD within the first hour post-release, while the Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.70%, reflecting investor caution. Short-term government bond yields edged lower, pricing in potential policy support.
The November PMI reading aligns with other core macroeconomic indicators showing a slowdown in China’s growth engine. Retail sales growth decelerated to 3.80% YoY in October from 4.50% in September, while fixed asset investment growth slowed to 4.20% YoY. Industrial production remained steady but showed signs of softening demand. Inflation remains subdued at 1.60% YoY, limiting immediate pressure on monetary tightening.
Monetary Policy & Financial Conditions
The PBOC’s benchmark lending rate remains at 3.65%, unchanged since mid-2025. Liquidity conditions have tightened slightly due to regulatory measures on shadow banking and property sector risks. The central bank’s recent open market operations have aimed to stabilize credit growth, but cautious lending by banks persists.
Fiscal Policy & Government Budget
Fiscal stimulus has been moderate, with local governments constrained by debt limits. The central government’s budget deficit target remains at 3.20% of GDP, with incremental infrastructure spending planned but no major new stimulus packages announced. This restrained fiscal stance limits near-term growth support.
External Shocks & Geopolitical Risks
Ongoing trade tensions with major partners and geopolitical uncertainties in the Indo-Pacific region weigh on export prospects. Global supply chain disruptions and commodity price volatility add further headwinds to the non-manufacturing sector.
This chart highlights a clear downward trend in the non-manufacturing sector, reversing a six-month expansion streak. The contraction suggests rising caution among businesses and consumers, likely reflecting broader macroeconomic uncertainties and tighter financial conditions.
Market lens
Immediate reaction: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70% within the first hour, while the CNY/USD exchange rate weakened by 0.30%. Short-dated government bond yields declined by 5 basis points, reflecting expectations of potential monetary easing.
Looking ahead, the trajectory of China’s non-manufacturing sector hinges on several factors. The base case scenario (60% probability) envisions a gradual stabilization with PMI returning to the 50-50.50 range by Q1 2026, supported by targeted monetary easing and moderate fiscal stimulus.
The bullish scenario (20% probability) assumes stronger-than-expected domestic demand recovery, easing geopolitical tensions, and accelerated infrastructure spending, pushing PMI above 51.00 by mid-2026.
The bearish scenario (20% probability) involves prolonged global trade disruptions, sharper credit tightening, and weaker consumer confidence, driving PMI below 48.50 and risking a broader economic slowdown.
Structural & Long-Run Trends
China’s economic rebalancing toward services and consumption remains intact but faces cyclical headwinds. Demographic shifts and technological adoption continue to reshape the sector, but near-term growth is challenged by debt overhang and global uncertainties.
Policy pulse
The PBOC’s cautious stance reflects a balancing act between supporting growth and managing financial risks. Fiscal authorities may need to increase targeted spending to offset private sector weakness.
The November 2025 NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.50 signals a pause in China’s post-pandemic recovery momentum. While not deeply contractionary, the dip below 50 highlights vulnerabilities in services and construction amid tighter financial conditions and external pressures. Policymakers face a delicate task in calibrating support without exacerbating debt risks. Market participants should monitor upcoming data releases and policy signals closely, as the sector’s health is a bellwether for broader economic stability.
Red text symbols linked to Sigmanomics database for market relevance:
- 000001.SZ – Shenzhen Component Index, sensitive to domestic economic shifts including services sector trends.
- USDCNY – The USD/CNY exchange rate, reflecting currency market reactions to economic data and policy.
- BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often viewed as a risk sentiment barometer amid global economic uncertainty.
- 600519.SH – Kweichow Moutai, a bellwether for consumer discretionary spending in China.
- EURCNY – Euro to Chinese yuan, reflecting trade and geopolitical risk sentiment impacting China’s external sector.
Key Markets Likely to React to NBS Non Manufacturing PMI
The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI is a critical indicator for markets tracking China’s economic health. The Shenzhen Component Index (000001.SZ) often moves in tandem with PMI shifts due to its broad sector coverage. Currency pairs like USD/CNY (USDCNY) and EUR/CNY (EURCNY) reflect investor sentiment on China’s growth prospects and trade outlook. Consumer-focused stocks such as Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH) respond to shifts in domestic demand. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) can also signal risk appetite changes linked to economic data surprises.
Insight: NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI vs. 000001.SZ Since 2020
Since 2020, the Shenzhen Component Index (000001.SZ) has shown a positive correlation (~0.65) with the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI. Periods of PMI contraction, such as mid-2022 and late 2025, coincided with notable index pullbacks. This relationship underscores the PMI’s role as a leading indicator for equity market sentiment on China’s economic trajectory.
FAQs
- What does the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI indicate?
- The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI measures the economic health of China’s services and construction sectors, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 contraction.
- How does the November 2025 PMI compare historically?
- The 49.50 reading is the first contraction since July 2024 and below the 12-month average of 50.20, signaling a slowdown in non-manufacturing activity.
- What are the macro implications of this PMI reading?
- The contraction suggests weakening domestic demand and cautious business sentiment, potentially slowing GDP growth and prompting policy support.
Key takeaway: China’s November 2025 Non-Manufacturing PMI contraction signals rising economic caution, underscoring the need for calibrated policy support amid global uncertainties.
This has been drafted with AI assistance and then thoroughly reviewed, refined, and approved by our human editorial team to ensure accuracy, and originality.
The November 2025 NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI at 49.50 marks a 0.60-point decline from October’s 50.10 and sits below the 12-month average of 50.20. This is the first contractionary reading since July 2024’s 49.80, indicating a reversal of the modest expansion trend seen over the past year.
Sub-index analysis shows new orders fell to 48.70 from 49.90 last month, while business expectations dropped to 50.30 from 51.20. Employment sub-index also declined to 48.90, signaling potential job market softness in services and construction.