China’s NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI for November 2025 registered at 50.20, up from October’s 49.50 and beating the consensus estimate of 49.80. This marks a return to expansion territory after a brief contraction in October, signaling improved activity in the services and construction sectors. The 12-month average stands at 50.10, indicating that November’s reading is consistent with the broader trend of modest growth in the non-manufacturing economy.

Drivers this month

• Services sector growth rebounded, supported by domestic consumption and easing COVID-19 restrictions.
• Construction activity stabilized, reflecting government infrastructure spending.
• New orders and business expectations improved, suggesting cautious optimism among firms.

Policy pulse

The PMI reading aligns with the People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) current stance of measured monetary easing. Inflation remains subdued, allowing room for targeted liquidity support without aggressive rate cuts. Fiscal policy continues to emphasize infrastructure investment and consumption incentives to sustain momentum.

Market lens

Following the release, the Chinese yuan (USD/CNY) strengthened modestly, while short-term government bond yields edged lower. Equity markets showed a mild positive reaction, reflecting improved sentiment toward the services sector’s recovery.

The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI is a key gauge of China’s services and construction sectors, which together account for over 60% of GDP. November’s 50.20 reading indicates expansion, reversing October’s contraction at 49.50. Compared to September’s 50.00 and August’s 50.30, the data suggest a volatile but generally stable non-manufacturing sector.

Comparative context

• November 2025: 50.20 (expansion)
• October 2025: 49.50 (contraction)
• September 2025: 50.00 (neutral)
• 12-month average (Dec 2024–Nov 2025): 50.10
• Year-over-year (Nov 2024): 50.40

Monetary policy & financial conditions

The PBOC has maintained a cautious easing approach, balancing growth support with financial stability. Liquidity injections and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts have been calibrated to support credit growth in non-manufacturing sectors. Inflation remains near the central bank’s target, allowing for this measured stance.

Fiscal policy & government budget

Fiscal stimulus continues to focus on infrastructure and consumption subsidies. Local governments have increased spending on urban development projects, which supports construction activity reflected in the PMI. However, fiscal prudence remains a priority amid rising debt concerns.

What This Chart Tells Us

Market lens

Immediate reaction: USD/CNY depreciated by 0.15% within the first hour post-release, reflecting improved sentiment. Chinese equities, particularly in consumer services, gained 0.30%, while 2-year government bond yields fell by 3 basis points, indicating expectations of continued accommodative policy.

Looking ahead, the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI’s trajectory will hinge on several factors. Domestically, consumption recovery and infrastructure investment remain key growth drivers. Externally, geopolitical tensions and global demand fluctuations pose downside risks.

Scenario analysis

• Bullish (30% probability): Stronger domestic demand and easing geopolitical tensions push PMI above 51.00, accelerating services sector growth and boosting overall GDP.
• Base (50% probability): Gradual recovery continues with PMI hovering around 50.00–50.50, reflecting steady but cautious expansion amid balanced policy support.
• Bearish (20% probability): External shocks or renewed COVID-19 outbreaks cause PMI to slip below 49.50, signaling contraction and prompting more aggressive policy easing.

Structural & long-run trends

China’s economic transition toward consumption and services is ongoing. The non-manufacturing PMI’s moderate expansion aligns with this shift but underscores the need for innovation and productivity gains. Long-term growth will depend on reforms, digital economy adoption, and improved business environment.

November 2025’s NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI reading of 50.20 signals a tentative recovery in China’s services and construction sectors after October’s contraction. While the data suggest resilience amid external uncertainties, the narrow margin above 50 highlights ongoing vulnerabilities. Policymakers face the challenge of sustaining growth without compromising financial stability. Investors should monitor upcoming PMI releases, fiscal developments, and geopolitical developments closely.

Key Markets Likely to React to NBS Non Manufacturing PMI

The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI is a vital barometer for China’s economic health, especially the services and construction sectors. Markets sensitive to domestic demand and policy shifts typically respond to this data. Key instruments include Chinese equities, the yuan currency pair, and fixed income securities.

• 000001.SS – Shanghai Composite Index, closely tracks China’s economic activity and sentiment shifts.
• USDCNY – The yuan’s exchange rate reflects monetary policy and trade outlook.
• EURCNY – Euro-yuan pair, sensitive to China-Europe trade and geopolitical developments.
• BTCUSD – Bitcoin, often reacts to risk sentiment shifts driven by macroeconomic data.
• 399001.SZ – Shenzhen Component Index, representing tech and services sectors impacted by PMI trends.

FAQs

What does the NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI indicate?

The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI measures activity levels in China’s services and construction sectors, signaling expansion above 50 and contraction below.

How does the November 2025 PMI compare to previous months?

November’s 50.20 reading marks a rebound from October’s 49.50 contraction and aligns with the 12-month average of 50.10, indicating modest growth.

Why is the Non-Manufacturing PMI important for investors?

It reflects the health of China’s dominant economic sectors, influencing currency, equity, and bond markets sensitive to domestic demand and policy shifts.

Final takeaway: November’s NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI signals cautious optimism for China’s services-led recovery, but vigilance is needed amid external and structural challenges.