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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina NBS Non Manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China NBS Non Manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in July 2026, down 1.2 from June's 50.2 reading. The reading matched the 50 consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 1.1. Over the past 3 months, NBS Non Manufacturing PMI averaged 50.15, vs 49.67 in the prior 3-month window. NBS Non Manufacturing PMI is now the lowest in 36 months.
Latest Release
49
Actual
50
Consensus
50.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.37
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 50.23
Actual: 49
Error: +1.23
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.48 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (China) was reported at 49.00 in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 50.00 by 1.00. The reading fell from the previous value of 50.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.85, ranging from 49.00 to 50.30 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 49.77, up from the prior three at 49.67. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.41) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.57). In July readings over the past 3 years, NBS Non Manufacturing PMI has averaged 49.77.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with Hang Seng, positively correlated (Bullish Hang Seng). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.37.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 31, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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NBS Non Manufacturing PMI - CN
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About NBS Non Manufacturing PMI — China
DEFINITION
The NBS Non Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the non-manufacturing sector in a country. It provides valuable insights into the overall economic health and growth potential of the service industry, including sectors such as retail, transportation, and finance. This indicator is based on a monthly survey of business executives, making it a reliable and timely source of information for investors and policymakers. The NBS Non Manufacturing PMI is an essential tool for analyzing the current and future state of a country's service sector, and its fluctuations can have significant impacts on financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 49, consensus 50. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 50.2. Before that (May 2026): 50.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.49) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |