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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina NBS Non Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.1 in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
China NBS Non Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.1 in May 2026, up 0.7 from April's 49.4 reading. The reading matched the 49.5 consensus. Over the past 3 months, NBS Non Manufacturing PMI averaged 49.67, vs 49.8 in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 38th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
50.1
Actual
49.5
Consensus
49.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.36
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 49.43
Actual: 50.1
Error: -0.68
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hang Seng | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | INDEX | Bullish Hang Seng | → View |
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.42 | INDEX | Bullish Nikkei 225 | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (China) was reported at 50.10 in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 49.50 by 0.60. The reading rose from the previous value of 49.40. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.98, ranging from 49.40 to 50.50 across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 49.90, up from the prior three at 49.70. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.34) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.56). In May readings over the past 3 years, NBS Non Manufacturing PMI has averaged 50.50.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng). A secondary relationship exists with Nikkei 225, positively correlated (Bullish Nikkei 225). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.36.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Jun 22) and Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Jun 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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NBS Non Manufacturing PMI - CN
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About NBS Non Manufacturing PMI — China
DEFINITION
The NBS Non Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the non-manufacturing sector in a country. It provides valuable insights into the overall economic health and growth potential of the service industry, including sectors such as retail, transportation, and finance. This indicator is based on a monthly survey of business executives, making it a reliable and timely source of information for investors and policymakers. The NBS Non Manufacturing PMI is an essential tool for analyzing the current and future state of a country's service sector, and its fluctuations can have significant impacts on financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 50.1, consensus 49.5. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 49.4. Before that (Mar 2026): 50.1.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Hang Seng (Bullish Hang Seng, r=0.46) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.