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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina NBS Non Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.2 in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China NBS Non Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.2 in September 2026, up 1.2 from August's 49 reading. The reading matched the 49.3 consensus. Over the past 3 months, NBS Non Manufacturing PMI averaged 49, vs 49.9 in the prior 3-month window. NBS Non Manufacturing PMI is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
50.2
Actual
49.3
Consensus
49
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.41
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 48.93
Actual: 50.2
Error: -1.28
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (China) was reported at 50.20 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 49.30 by 0.90. The reading rose from the previous value of 49.00. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 49.75, ranging from 49.00 to 50.20 across 11 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 49.40, down from the prior three at 50.13. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.46) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.57). In September readings over the past 3 years, NBS Non Manufacturing PMI has averaged 50.07.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.41.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 31, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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NBS Non Manufacturing PMI - CN
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About NBS Non Manufacturing PMI — China
DEFINITION
The NBS Non Manufacturing PMI is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the performance of the non-manufacturing sector in a country. It provides valuable insights into the overall economic health and growth potential of the service industry, including sectors such as retail, transportation, and finance. This indicator is based on a monthly survey of business executives, making it a reliable and timely source of information for investors and policymakers. The NBS Non Manufacturing PMI is an essential tool for analyzing the current and future state of a country's service sector, and its fluctuations can have significant impacts on financial markets.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 50.2, consensus 49.3. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 49. Before that (Jul 2026): 49.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary neutral force in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Nikkei 225 (Bullish Nikkei 225, r=0.45) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | 51.30 | High | |