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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina New Loans climbed to 1,080B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
China New Loans climbed to 1,080B in September 2026, released October 2026, up 1,020B from August's 60B reading. The print exceeded the 975B consensus by 105B. New Loans has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, New Loans averaged -140B, vs 850B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 82nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1080
Actual
975
Consensus
60
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±210 billion
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 817.5
Actual: 1,080
Error: -262.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.55 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Loans (China) was reported at 1,080.00 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 975.00 billion by 105.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 60.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 534.00 billion, ranging from -340.00 billion to 1,610.00 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 266.67 billion, down from the prior three at 706.67 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 210.00 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 13, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NBS Non Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31) and NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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New Loans - CN
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About New Loans — China
DEFINITION
New Loans is a financial indicator that measures the amount of new loans issued by a financial institution during a specific period of time. This indicator is used to assess the lending activity of a bank or other lending institution and can provide insight into the overall health of the economy. A high number of new loans may indicate a growing demand for credit and a positive outlook for economic growth, while a low number may suggest a lack of confidence in the economy. New Loans is an important metric for investors, analysts, and policymakers in evaluating the current state and future prospects of the lending market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 1,080 B, consensus 975 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 60 B. Before that (Jul 2026): -340 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 52.1 | 51.6 | 51.30 | High | |