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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina New Loans climbed to 60B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
China New Loans climbed to 60B in August 2026, released September 2026, up 400B from July's -340B reading. The reading missed the 400B consensus by 340B. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1,082.5B. Over the past 3 months, New Loans averaged 960B, vs 1,402B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 19th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
60
Actual
400
Consensus
-340
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±210 billion
across last 10 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 242.5
Actual: 60
Error: +182.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Loans (China) was reported at 60.00 billion in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 400.00 billion by 340.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -340.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 473.33 billion, ranging from -340.00 billion to 1,610.00 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 443.33 billion, down from the prior three at 470.00 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 10 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 210.00 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Sep 21) and Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Sep 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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New Loans - CN
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About New Loans — China
DEFINITION
New Loans is a financial indicator that measures the amount of new loans issued by a financial institution during a specific period of time. This indicator is used to assess the lending activity of a bank or other lending institution and can provide insight into the overall health of the economy. A high number of new loans may indicate a growing demand for credit and a positive outlook for economic growth, while a low number may suggest a lack of confidence in the economy. New Loans is an important metric for investors, analysts, and policymakers in evaluating the current state and future prospects of the lending market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 60 B, consensus 400 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -340 B. Before that (Jun 2026): 1,610 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | CN | M2 Money Supply YoY | 7.5 | 7.7 | 7.6 | 7.55 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Total Social Financing | 1660 | 1410 | 2040 | 1850.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | Outstanding Loan Growth YoY | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.00 | Low |
| 09:00 | CN | New Loans | 60 | -340 | 400 | 230.00 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:30 | CN | House Price Index YoY | -3 | -3.2 | -3.1 | -3.10 | Medium |
| 02:00 | CN | Retail Sales YoY | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.63 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Unemployment Rate | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.20 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Industrial Production YoY | 5.2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.95 | High |
| 02:00 | CN | Fixed Asset Investment | -7.2 | -6.7 | -7.2 | -7.72 | Medium |