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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ChinaChina New Loans climbed to 1,610B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
China New Loans climbed to 1,610B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 1,090B from May's 520B reading. The reading missed the 1,950B consensus by 340B. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1,027.5B. Over the past 3 months, New Loans averaged 660B, vs 1,945B in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 86th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1610
Actual
1950
Consensus
520
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±210 billion
across last 8 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 1,885
Actual: 1,610
Error: +275
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CNH | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.62 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Loans (China) was reported at 1,610.00 billion in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1,950.00 billion by 340.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 520.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 564.44 billion, ranging from -50.00 billion to 1,610.00 billion across 9 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 706.67 billion, down from the prior three at 733.33 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CNH, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 8 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 210.00 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Aug 3) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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New Loans - CN
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About New Loans — China
DEFINITION
New Loans is a financial indicator that measures the amount of new loans issued by a financial institution during a specific period of time. This indicator is used to assess the lending activity of a bank or other lending institution and can provide insight into the overall health of the economy. A high number of new loans may indicate a growing demand for credit and a positive outlook for economic growth, while a low number may suggest a lack of confidence in the economy. New Loans is an important metric for investors, analysts, and policymakers in evaluating the current state and future prospects of the lending market.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1,610 B, consensus 1,950 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 1,610 B. Before that (May 2026): 520 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bearish XAU, r=-0.68) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CN Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | CN | NBS General PMI | 49.3 | 50.6 | 50.4 | 49.85 | Low |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Non Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 50.2 | 50 | 49.50 | Medium |
| 01:30 | CN | NBS Manufacturing PMI | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50 | 49.60 | High |
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 01:45 | CN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 49 | 51.7 | 52 | 50.50 | High |